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NFL 4th week pick, expected, preview is Sunday afternoon

Getty Images Photo (from the left) 3rd grade Marvin Harrison (left), trever Lawrence (center), Jammer Chase.

This week's NFL's 4th week's pickup is out, and I feel like I'm finally getting calm down for the new season.

Week 3 was Kitchen Sink Week, and what a glorious week it was. The top 5 Kitchen Sink teams I ranked a week ago, the Rams, Ravens, Giants, Colts, and Panthers, all won ATS coverage, with 3 of them being underdogs. I finished last week's column at +11, 79 points, and 88% ROI. This season I'm at +5, 24 points with a 15, 7% ROI.

There are currently fewer winless teams (3 teams) than undefeated teams (5 teams). I've written about 3-0 teams (Chiefs, Bills, Seahawks, Vikings, Steelers), but it might be time to start fading some of these teams that are a little over-hyped.

As for the final 3 teams, the Bengals, Jaguars, and Titans, I might need to make another Kitchen Sink bet in the final week of Week 4.

So, with a pinch of fun thrown in for the long throws and escalators of Week 4, let's get to the NFL picks. NFL Week 4 Picks

Jaguars vs. Texans Picks (Against the Spread)

Sunday, September 29

Jaguars +6. 5 (-105)

Despite how bad the Jaguars looked against the Bills on Monday night, this is a great buy point in a division matchup against the overrated Texans. Division underdogs at 6-5 or better are 88-58 with 2 ATS (60%) in the first five weeks of the season.

The Texans are the favorite team this summer, but they have yet to live up to the hype. They are 26th in offensive DVOA (bottom quarter of the league in both rushing and passing), and sophomore QB C. J. Stroud has struggled to find a rhythm. They are 28th in success rate, 31st in negative play rate, and 100th in Patton Analysis stats. I rate Stroud at 13. 5% of the time to get a turnover on a sack or drop. Also, Stroud has a favorable matchup.

On Monday night, we saw Josh Allen cut through this Jags defense. DC Ryan Nielsen applies more man coverage than any other team -- over 50% of Jacksonville's snaps so far -- and Allen has been elite against the man in his career, and he got everything he wanted in this antiquated secondary.

But Strode is the exact opposite. As a rookie, he was elite against zone with a No. 1 QBR and 89% PFF points, but struggled against man with a No. 27 QBR and 17% PFF points.

As history tells you, this is a great opportunity to buy a Jaguars team that no one wants. Since the fourth week, the undefeated team against the undefeated winning team is 62 % ATS, and the away game after not being able to cover with more than 24 points is ATS. After the third week, 69 % of underdogs, which lost 35 points or more in the previous game, were 69 %, of which ATS as "4 points or more" was 49 wins and 14 losses and 2 minutes.

This season is the underdog season, and despite the fact that Texan's defeated almost the same as last weekend's Jaguars, you can get 3 points for free on the long line from the opening round.

In addition, these underdogs are not only covered, but they continue to win-and 6 to 6, 5 points roaddogs have an investment rate of more than 30 % in the past 20 years, especially in money lines. Is raising.

Trevor Lawrence has been defeated eight consecutive games since Thanksgiving, but last season's six wins in Jackson Building were 2 digits, 11 of the 20 Lawrence's career wins, and the average win difference was 11 and 8 points. Since the opening of last season, Houston's 9 losses and 6 losses were 2 digits, an average of 19 and 3 points.

Most of your betting is placed on Jaguars +6, 5, but if you sprinkle Alt Juguz-9 and 5 lines with+830 (FANDUEL), one of these many years of underdog Let's see if you can win with two digits.

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High quality article analysis Now $ 20 discount Select Bengals vs Panthers for the spread September 29 (Sun) Bengal s-4 (-110)

This line is a ridiculous excessive response to last week's results.

The Texans are the favorite team this summer, but they have yet to live up to the hype. They are 26th in offensive DVOA (bottom quarter of the league in both rushing and passing), and sophomore QB C. J. Stroud has struggled to find a rhythm. They are 28th in success rate, 31st in negative play rate, and 100th in Patton Analysis stats. I rate Stroud at 13. 5% of the time to get a turnover on a sack or drop. Regarding Bengals, everyone saw Monday Knight's embarrassing losing.

For some reason, Cincinnati was 0 wins and 3 losses, they all kill them, and on Sunday morning, the Bengals line, which wa s-7 and 5, over some important numbers and touched down. I passed by the difference.

In fact, these teams may be exactly the same as a year ago. Check out the DVOA thre e-week ranking for these teams in 2023.

2023: 31st in Panthers Offense, 25th in Panthers Defense, 11th in Bengals Offense, 23rd Bengals Defense

2024: 31st in Panthers offense, 21st in Panthers Defense, 5th in Bengals Offense, 24th in Bengals Defense

Carolina is still not good, and Cincinnati's defense is not good, but the offense is still wonderful. Bengals did not lose due to the offense in the chief of the Monday.

• Joe Barou has regained calm, and Tea Higgins has returned. Bengals shouldn't put a thick number of Panthers Defense, who lacks the best player in the season (Derrick Brown).
• Everyone likes Andy Dalton's revenge match, but it is highly likely that the Panthers offense was endlessly good for the defense who actively abandoned play in the middle game. Cincinnati is vulnerable to explosive play, but carolina has no scraps-Adam Sierhen is also injured.

Barrow includes 14 wins, 7 losses, 1ATS after the defeat, 79%ATS on the road, and one win and 0 defeats this season in this chief.

This line is wrong. Cincinnati will finally win the first victory on Sunday.

Broncos vs. Jets Player Props

September 29 (Sun)

Garrett Wilson 56 points or less 5 yards

Both teams have a fairly heavy run with a total of 40 yards, and it is likely to be an ugly game. When Scott Hansen sends the most interesting match in the NFL Red Zone to the witching hour, the game may be approaching.

The Texans are the favorite team this summer, but they have yet to live up to the hype. They are 26th in offensive DVOA (bottom quarter of the league in both rushing and passing), and sophomore QB C. J. Stroud has struggled to find a rhythm. They are 28th in success rate, 31st in negative play rate, and 100th in Patton Analysis stats. I rate Stroud at 13. 5% of the time to get a turnover on a sack or drop. Both defense is ranked in the top half of the league by DVOA. I like Jets to get rid of my job here. This week, I'm a favorite leg teaser alongside the Chiefs in a similar place and the +2 and 5 accounts on the road.

New York has few weapons other than Garrett Wilson and Breath Hall, and Denver's defense is suitable for gaining one of those weapons. Because Broncos has one of the leading corners in the league called Patrick Satin, one of the few corners that remains a shadow on the opponent's top play.

This season, Satin has achieved so well. Let's take a look at the top wide out of the opponent's team that is hidden in the shadow of the satin so far. DK Metcaf has 3 catches 29 yards for 4 targets, George Pikens is 2/29 for 4 targets, and Mike Evans is 2/17 with 3 targets. In each case, there is no reach of 30 yards with four targets. Satin had forgotten them.

Wilson has a large number of targets, but has only 5 catches per game. This season is only four catches 4 times, and 16 yards or more is only once.

Wilson recorded an average of 50 yards per game, but has exceeded this line in two games, but only 57 yards and 60 yards. Wilson should safely fall below this total yard as long as Satine restricts Wilson's look and chance.

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High quality article analysis Now $ 20 discount Select Bengals vs Panthers for the spread September 29 (Sun) Bengal s-4 (-110)

I've been watching Packers' -2, 5 for a long time, waiting for Jordan Love's news to trigger. Love is still a quest, but it doesn't seem to be a doubt.

The Texans are the favorite team this summer, but they have yet to live up to the hype. They are 26th in offensive DVOA (bottom quarter of the league in both rushing and passing), and sophomore QB C. J. Stroud has struggled to find a rhythm. They are 28th in success rate, 31st in negative play rate, and 100th in Patton Analysis stats. I rate Stroud at 13. 5% of the time to get a turnover on a sack or drop. Packers were really good! In the pr e-season, the Green Bay offense was outstanding, despite the two games that were not included in the roaster, and one game at Brazil's link. In the third place in DVOA, the top seven in both Rushing and Pass, Matt Rafur is cooking with play calls and strategies.

DC's new defense, Jeff Hufflie, is also ranked top 12 in DVOA, and has finally performed a big offense spray, and has been active in the culmination of talent.

Minnesota's defense was certainly impressive, but the time to play against Daniel Jones and then return Shanahan's offense, the time would be very long for the same offense.

Vikings have never played snaps from behind this season. In other words, Brian Flores's subordinates can play as he want, turn their ears backwards, and put pressure on the pas s-down. This is effective in protecting the lead, better than poor QB and scheme.

He defeated Blitz from the first year of the starter, and at the PFF point last year, the intercept was only once, with 12TDs in the second place against Blitz. In particular, green bay pass blocking is wonderful so far.

It's great that Vikings doesn't need to play from the beehinds yet, but at the same time, we haven't really seen this team yet. In a weekly match against Sainz, the first options did not work, Derek car did not have a system, and the New Orleans, who had to play without a lead, looked like different things.

Is the current Sam Danold really good? It is not good at any point of his career, and the ATS on the outside is 38 %, and a man who is not good at windy conditions that may be seen in Green Bay work several times while protecting a big lead. Is it good now like magic because you did it?

Now, it's a good opportunity to sell the Vikings team, which is traded at the highest in books. Minnesota is impressive, but the last two weeks of the Green Bay victory is definitely the biggest victory for any team so far.

This rivalry tends to be close to the battle, and the season series has played four times in the past, but individual games are not always close. Vikings vs Packers games for five consecutive games, ending with a big difference of at least 14 points to winners.

Here, let's disassemble some aggressive betting on Packers.

First, put a quarter point at the Green Bay-9 and 5 with+300 (FANDUEL), and hope that the Packers will win with a double-digit difference. However, if you like Packers, you should also strongly consider a bet that controls NFC north with+340 (Draftkings).

How about going one step further?

MVP is always given to the great QB of the great team. Malik Willis may have quietly saved Love's MVP stocks for the past two weeks.

If Love plays an active part and Packers reached two more in December, no one would remember that Love had missed the two games in September. Earlier this week, I already bet on +6600 to win the Love MVP, but he still has a +6000 (ESPN bet). He may win. Packers are a very good team.