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Annualized inflation rates: services, goods, and housing

The first chart was cited by Fed Chairman Powell, and shows that services minus housing rent rose about 8% year-over-year. This has declined and is now up 4. 4% year-over-year.

Click on the chart to see a larger image.

This chart shows the annual price change of "services" and "services minus housing rent" through September 2024.

Services rose 4. 7% year-over-year in September 2024, up from 4. 8% year-over-year in August.

Services prices minus shelter rent rose 4. 4% year-over-year in September, up from 4. 3% year-over-year in August.

The second chart shows that commodity prices began to rise year-over-year in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

In September 2024, it was down at a-2. 9% annualized rate, down from a-4. 2% annualized rate in August.

Commodities excluding food and energy goods were down at a-1. 2% annualized rate in September, down from a-1. 7% annualized rate in August.

Below are year-over-year charts of the CPI (through September) and PCE (through August) for housing.

Shelter in September was up 4. 8% year-over-year, up from a 5. 2% increase in August. Housing (PCE) in August was up 5. 3% year-over-year, up from a 5. 2% increase in July.

The BLS announced this morning: "The housing index rose 0. 2% in September, and the food index rose 0. 4%. Together, these two indexes accounted for more than 75% of the month-over-month increase in all items."

This still covers personal data. Core CPI for the former refuge rose 2, 0% year-over-year in September. Residents near the proposed Battery facility in Brighton wanted to hear about fire protection measures. The company spoke instead about the building's architecture, proposed trees and plans to widen sidewalks.

The morning along Charles is calm, albeit early.
Cost of living adjustments will increase 2, 5% in 2025, and the contribution base will increase to $176.

Calculated Risk Updated 2024-10-10 12:56:13

This morning's CPI release revealed the cost of living adjustments (COLAs) and contribution bases for 2025.

The Social Security Administration announced today that Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for more than 72. 5 million Americans will increase 2. 5% in 2025. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $50 per month starting in January.

The growth of COLA in the past 10 years is about 2, 6 %. Cola in 2024 was 3, 2 %. In addition, some adjustments implemented in January every year are based on an average wage increase rate. Based on this increase, the maximum amount of income (the highest taxable) to be subject to social security tax is $ 168 to 600 $.

Currently, CPI-W is an index used for calculating living expenses (COLA). The following is an explanation of the current calculation method (up 2. 5 %) and the list of past living expenses adjustments.

The US average wage index rose 4. 4 % from $ 63. 795. 13 in 2022, and to $ 621. 80 in 2023 (used for premiums base calculation).

The number of weekly unemployment insurance applications is 258. 000

Calculation risk update 2024-10-10 12:41:49

The number of new unemployment insurance applied for the season adjusted on October 5 is 258. 000, and this is 258. So, the average of 224. 250 before the revision last week increased by 6. 750.

The graph below shows the average number of new unemployment insurance applications for weekly unemployment insurance since 1971.

Click the graph to see a large image.

Click on the chart to see a larger image.

No correction last week.

The number of unemployment insurance applications on weekly exceeded the consensus forecast.

The increase in this week was affected by the hurricane, for example, in North Carolina, the number of new unemployment insurance applications on the week ending on October 5 rose from 2. 941 last week to 11. 475.

BLS: September CPI rose 0. 2 %. The core CPI is 0.

Calculated risk update 2024-10-10 12:32:15

The U. S. Labor Statistics Bureau announced today, the Urban Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) has been adjusted to 0. 2 %, with the same rise in August and July. For the past 12 months, the entire item index before the seasonal adjustment has risen 2. 4 %. COLA growth over the past 10 years is about 2, 6 %. Cola in 2024 was 3, 2 %. In addition, some adjustments implemented in January every year are based on an average wage increase rate. Based on this increase, the maximum amount of income (the highest taxable) to be subject to social security tax is $ 168 to 600 $.

Currently, CPI-W is an index used for calculating living expenses (COLA). The following is an explanation of the current calculation method (up 2. 5 %) and the list of past living expenses adjustments.

The US average wage index rose 4. 4 % from $ 63. 795. 13 in 2022, and to $ 621. 80 in 2023 (used for premiums base calculation).

The number of weekly unemployment insurance applications is 258. 000

Calculation risk update 2024-10-10 12:41:49

The number of new unemployment insurance applied for the season adjusted on October 5 is 258. 000, and this is 258. So, the average of 224. 250 before the revision last week increased by 6. 750.

The graph below shows the average number of new unemployment insurance applications for weekly unemployment insurance since 1971.
Click the graph to see a large image.
The dotted line on the graph is on average for the current four weeks. The average number of unemployment insurance applications on weeks increased to 231. 000.
No correction last week.
The number of unemployment insurance applications on weekly exceeded the consensus forecast.
The increase in this week was affected by the hurricane, for example, in North Carolina, the number of new unemployment insurance applications on the week ending on October 5 rose from 2. 941 last week to 11. 475.
BLS: September CPI rose 0. 2 %. The core CPI is 0.
Calculated risk update 2024-10-10 12:32:15
The U. S. Labor Statistics Bureau announced today, the Urban Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) has been adjusted to 0. 2 %, with the same rise in August and July. For the past 12 months, the entire item index before the seasonal adjustment has risen 2. 4 %. The growth of COLA in the past 10 years is about 2, 6 %. Cola in 2024 was 3, 2 %. In addition, some adjustments implemented in January every year are based on an average wage increase rate. Based on this increase, the maximum income (taxable) to be subject to social security tax is $ 168 to 600 $.
Currently, CPI-W is an index used for calculating living expenses (COLA). The following is an explanation of the current calculation method (up 2. 5 %) and the list of past living expenses adjustments.
The US average wage index rose 4. 4 % from $ 63. 795. 13 in 2022, and to $ 621. 80 in 2023 (used for premiums base calculation).
The number of weekly unemployment insurance applications is 258. 000
Calculation risk update 2024-10-10 12:41:49

The number of new unemployment insurance applied for the season adjusted on October 5 is 258. 000, and this is 258. So, the average of 224. 250 before the revision last week increased by 6. 750.

The graph below shows the average number of new unemployment insurance applications for weekly unemployment insurance since 1971.

Click the graph to see a large image.

The dotted line on the graph is on average for the current four weeks. The average number of weekly unemployment insurance applications increased to 231. 000.

No correction last week.

The number of unemployment insurance applications on weekly exceeded the consensus forecast.

BLS: September CPI rose 0. 2 %. The core CPI is 0.

Calculated risk update 2024-10-10 12:32:15

The shelter index rose 0. 2% in September, while the food index rose 0. 4%. Together, these two indexes accounted for more than 75% of the monthly data. The food at home index rose 0. 4% in September, while the food away from home index rose 0. 3%. The energy index fell 1. 9% in the month, after falling 0. 8% in the previous month.

The index for all items excluding food and energy rose 0. 3% in September, following a decline in the previous month. Indicators that rose in September included shelter, auto insurance, health care, apparel, and airlines. Indicators that rose in September included shelter, auto insurance, health care, apparel, and airlines.

The all-item index rose 2. 4% in the 12 months to September, the smallest increase in 12 months since February 2021. The all-item index excluding food and energy index rose 3. 3% in the past 12 months. The energy index fell 6. 8% in the 12 months to September. The food index rose 2. 3% in the past year. Highlight

The change in the CPI was slightly better than expected. We'll post a chart after the Cleveland Fed CPI is released later today.

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Kidney Exchange in Brazil, Continued (with Photos)

Al Roth Updated 2024-10-10 12:39:00

In August, I posted about my trip to Brazil with Mike Rees, where we traveled with Dr. Gustavo Ferreira, head of transplantation at Santa Casa de Misericordia de Juis de Fora Hospital.

Part of our trip was spent in Brazil's capital city, where we discussed with the government the extension of Brazil's transplant law to allow for kidney exchanges. Here is my blog post about this trip: Kidney Exchange in Brazil: An Introduction.

The post concluded: "I was able to finish an exciting trip on Saturday, but it's not my story yet, so I'll come again after the official announcement."

Brazil's first 3D kidney replacement is currently being announced as a part of a clinical trial that has revised Brazilian laws and recognizes kidney replacement as a normal medical practice. The three donors and the three recipients were all successful and left the hospital immediately after the actual surgery, but came back to talk about their own news program Profissão Repórter. 。 You can see the video here. https: // globoplay. globo. com/v/1299736/

It's Portuguese, but you can understand it right away. Dr. Juliana Bustos, a transplanted kidney specialist, will be introduced on Instagram earlier. https: //www. Instagram. com/request/da4jbvisfta/? IGSH = D2HNB3HONJJXN2I4 3D blood vessels of three pairs of patients are arranged in front of the camera, and each patient receives organ from donors. Ta. (Dr. Bustos recently acquired a Ph. D. in a paper on kidney exchange).

If you supervise a movie based on this kind of transplant surgery, there will be two dramatic scenes. One is a scene where the kidney donor is transported to the transplanted operative room, the other is the moment when the clamp is removed from the transplanted kidney blood vessels, and the kidneys change from gray to pink as the blood returns.

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

The ather artery of the kidney provided is a small white tube shown by the organs pressed with the finger in the upper right of the photo. The long red tube in front of you must connect this artery so that the blood flows into the kidneys again in the artery of the recipe. Note that the recipe artery has already been added to a small incision, and both are connected here. The connection must be perfect, so that blood flows without an obstacle caused by blood clots.

Dr. Alexis Karell, who first discovered this kind of blood vessel surgery, won the Nobel Science and Medicine Award in 1912. The post concluded: "I was able to finish an exciting trip on Saturday, but it's not my story yet, so I will come again after the official announcement."

If you supervise a movie based on this kind of transplant surgery, there will be two dramatic scenes. One is a scene where the kidney donor is transported to the transplanted operative room, the other is the moment when the clamp is removed from the transplanted kidney blood vessels, and the kidneys change from gray to pink as the blood returns.

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

Dr. Alexis Karell, who first discovered this kind of blood vessel surgery, won the Nobel Science and Medicine Award in 1912. The post concluded: "I was able to finish an exciting trip on Saturday, but it's not my story yet, so I'll come again after the official announcement."

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

The ather artery of the kidney provided is a small white tube shown by the organs pressed by the finger in the upper right of the photo. The long red tube in front of you must connect this artery so that the blood flows into the kidneys again in the artery of the recipe. Note that the recipe artery has already been added to a small incision, and both are connected here. The connection must be perfect, so that blood flows without an obstacle caused by blood clots.
Dr. Alexis Karell, who first discovered this kind of blood vessel surgery, won the Nobel Science and Medicine Award in 1912.
Thanks to the Brazilian surgeon and Mike Leeds (who wasn't busy with surgery) explaining the procedure, I was able to follow the procedure. That wasn't the only support Mike gave me in the OR (I was balancing on two stools to better understand the explanation):
And here's a photo after the operation:
Parabens ao Gustavo e a Juliana! Congratulations. Your work and leadership can make a big difference not only to your patients, but to people all over Brazil.
Monday, August 12, 2024

Kidney exchange in Brazil: Prelude

Helene and Milton ask us: A home insurance crisis?
Terry H. Schwadron Updated 10-10-2024 12:07:06
Where is the political interest?

The news and political campaigns are full of reports of enormous property damage and very sad stories of people who lost their homes along with more than 225 souls as climate change-driven hurricanes hit new areas inland that were not previously considered targets for storms.

As Hurricane Milton hits Florida, the property damage caused by Hurricane Helene alone is estimated at 2500, 000. The estimated cost is more than $1 billion. Milton is sure to match that at least. Insurance companies are abandoning storm zones, leaving homeowners everywhere to look for more expensive alternatives.

Aside from Republican candidates spreading illegal, politically-inspired misinformation about state emergency aid being obscured by partisan concerns, the press misses most of the story as it unfolds.

Instead of the government responding, the vast majority of homeowner coverage in emergencies comes from private insurance companies. No matter how you look at it, private insurance doesn't cover the biggest cause of storm damage to homes: rising water. We're watching insurance companies tell homeowners in states like Florida and California to cancel their home insurance entirely or raise their rates again and again.

Pressure from the federal government has forced insurers to start offering flood insurance in areas deemed vulnerable. But even in areas hit hard by Helene, this insurance covers less than 4% at best. A Washington Post investigation found that in seven states hit by Helene, only a small percentage of homes had flood insurance. 0. 8%. By contrast, 21% of homes in coastal counties in these regions were insured.

Moreover, maps of the National Flood Insurance Program, drawn up long ago, do not accurately reflect who falls in the flood zone. Donald Trump denies the effects of climate change while falsely criticizing the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration's immediate response to Helene, but the reality is that hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, and other severe weather events are spreading and becoming more intense as temperatures rise.

Where is the political concern?

Add to the increasing storm damage the folly of people who insist on rebuilding in the same damage zones, the cost of adequate insurance, and the corporate plan of for-profit insurance companies to continue to collect premiums without maintaining payments, and you begin to see the clear contours of a building crisis.

Citizens Insurance Corporation of Florida is a non-profit corporation created by the State of Florida in 2002 in response to insurance companies that abandoned the insurance market in the wake of the storm. Citizens is tax-funded, but it is run like a private corporation, overseen by the Governor, CFO, Attorney General, and Agriculture Commissioner.

Insurance companies that abandoned the residential market to stay profitable also took a hit in California after dozens of devastating fires. The damage is spreading, and companies' thinking will become more restrictive.

You'd think this would be as big a political issue as, say, access to health insurance. Disaster relief money is for temporary shelter, food, and water, not for rebuilding homes. Most people don't know they need to have flood insurance or can't afford it because of outdated insurance and high premiums.

But the political debate is whether Biden and Harris will withhold aid from areas that traditionally vote Republican, and they won't.

Indeed, as Florida shows, after 30 insurers withdrew from the state's insurance market, any recognition of the crisis (almost certainly without prior notice to homeowners) would have fueled special legislation, reducing incentives to sue insurers over disputes or limit citizens' coverage of second homes. This is not just an insurance company protection issue, it's a consumer issue.

Even the creation of the Citizens Insurance Program limited the value of eligible properties and ignored the growing replacement needs of states.

Every state has an insurance commissioner, but it's not clear that they see their role as protecting homeowners in an era of increasing damage from ever-more-intense storms and disasters that strike far beyond traditionally defined floodplains and fire risks.

Consider the Trend

Without expensive specialty insurance, people affected by floods and other disasters must rely on complex federal programs and nonprofit assistance to rebuild their lives. FEMA's Individual Assistance Program helps provide emergency relief, but it's capped at about $42, 500 for homes and $42, 000 for fires. $500. $500. Most are less.

Currently, more than 100 counties are designated for this assistance. These counties saw widespread flood insurance cuts, about half of which have been cut since a decade ago.

The flood insurance program requires flood insurance on mortgages in designated areas. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said this week that he sees no reason to ask Congress to allocate more funds to address flood conditions, despite the Trump campaign. Project 2025 would eliminate the program entirely and replace it with a private option, none of which is affordable.

Flood and earthquake maps are similar to the debate over health insurers, who could exclude people from policies because of pre-existing conditions before the Affordable Care Act.

As with health care issues, including abortion services, adequate coverage to protect the nation's homeowners from storm damage is a patchwork of services, depending on where you live and whether insurers offer the service.

A New York Times analysis in May found that homeowners insurers will lose money in 18 states in 2023. Payouts from catastrophes are costing insurance companies more than they receive in premiums. Homeowner premiums are soaring. In Florida, the state with the highest premium rates in the nation, the average annual cost of home insurance will rise by nearly 20% between 2021 and 2023, according to statistics compiled by Insurify, with the average homeowner paying $10, 000 in annual premiums by 2023.

It is probably correct that living in the coast of Florida or in a specific area of California is expensive, and private insurance premiums should be adjusted according to damage. But that's not to be settled in the public's interests, but should be discussed in public.

At the same time, politicians should be serious about identifying true problems, rather than conducting actively discussions on party.

Economic thinking in pandemic

Alex Tabarok update 10-10-2024 11:18:04

During the pandemic, economists often conflicted by politicians, doctors, and epidemiologists. For example, some politicians were concerned that pharmaceutical companies would run for speculation, and economists were concerned that pharmaceutical companies were not sufficient. Doctors focused on maximizing patient health, and economists focused on maximizing social health. During the pandemic, the two were not the same, so there were differences in opinions over clinical trials, initial administration, and human challenge trials. During the pandemic, economists were often accused of not staying in their lanes. But what is an economist's lane? In this lecture, we discuss economic thinking and how it conflicts with other ideas. This lecture is paired with my recent papers entitled "Economic Thinking in Pandemic."

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Responding to capitalism? Capitalism ... by Andrew97

$ Trillions of economic activity between pandemic.

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The cost of disasters dealing with Kobid is enormous.

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Helene and Milton ask us: A home insurance crisis?

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However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

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Kidney exchange in Brazil: Prelude

Where is the political interest?
ION VIDEO Updated 2024-10-10 10:01:00
Terry H. Schwadron Updated 10-10-2024 12:07:06

Planetary Defense: Good News from Taurid

Terry H. Schwadron Updated 10-10-2024 12:07:06

Image This is an image of short-period Comet Encke taken by Jim Scotti with the 0. 91m Space Telescope on Kitt Peak on January 5. The image spans 9. 18 arcminutes, with north to the right and east to the peak. The integration time is 150 seconds. Authentication.

The tides appear in October and November, when Earth encounters this debris stream in an area thought to hide potentially dangerous asteroids in its orbit. UMD's Quanzhi Ye summarises the discovery:

"We took advantage of the rare opportunity for this asteroid group to pass close to Earth, allowing us to more effectively search for objects that could pose a threat to our planet. Our findings suggest that the risk of being hit by a large asteroid in the Taurid cluster is much lower than we thought, which is great news for planetary defense."

The UMD team, working with colleagues from the University of Western Ontario in Seattle, the University of Washington and Poolesville High School in Maryland, used data from the Zwicky Transit Facility telescope, an astronomy research facility in Palomar, California, to search for objects larger than one kilometer in diameter that were left behind by larger objects.

As you explain, the results are promising:

"Judging by our results, the parent object that created the cluster was probably closer to 10 km in diameter, rather than a massive object with a diameter of 100 km. We still need to be careful about the impact of asteroids, but with these results, we can probably sleep better."

Image: Image of the Taurid meteor shower taken in 2015 by Czech amateur Martin Popek, who created an impressive composite record of fires erupting about once an hour from the direction of Taurus. Authentication.

Zwicky Transient Facility, a sky survey of potentially hazardous objects near Earth, such as those being conducted by ZTF, will be used to conduct monitoring studies of the Taurid meteor shower in the coming years.

The unusually dusty Comet Encke is relatively large for a short-period comet, with a core of 4-8 km, and is thought to have undergone a significant and potentially continuing period of fragmentation.

New results capturing potential risk zones for our world are useful in exploring possible future impacts. While the hunt continues, so too are efforts to learn more about potential frigate orbital changes, as evidenced by the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART), a NASA mission that struck the asteroid Moon Dimorphos in 2022, apparently disturbing the object. The European Space Agency's Hera mission, launched on October 7, will evaluate the results of DAR. )

Dimorphos' initial orbit was ablate, but after its collision with Arrow, it became more elongated. The collision shortened the asteroid's orbital period around the capital by 33 minutes. Thus, we learned at least one way to push the asteroid's orbit. Asteroid mitigation will advance near-Earth space technology and will push it deeper into the Earth system as we add to the list of potential collisions.

Moving Frontiers

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

Lime, Italy (screenshot)
The Italian Lime project, which is a survey project and art installation, explores strange habits related to the Italian border. The border between Italy, Switzerland, and Austria is along the water pace of the Alps. Thanks to the climate change and the shrinking glacier, the border has changed, and Italy has signed an agreement with Austria (2006) and Switzerland (2009) and r e-border as a boundary to move the border in accordance with changes in the basin line. Defined. (This is unexpected. For example, the border of the United States remains in the Mississippi River, not the current course.) The official map of Italy is updated every two years. In 2014 and 2016, Lims, Italy, dropped GPS sensors on solar cells on the surface of the glacier and tracked the border changes in real time. In the accompanying art installation and cutting exhibitions, the visitor could draw the border at that time. A book was published in 2019. [Map mania]
Moving, not a retreat
Jane Myenshine & amp; amp; Kate McCode update 10-10-2024 10:00:00
Medicine aims to return the body to the state before getting sick. But there is a better way of thinking about health.
Monday, August 12, 2024

Kidney exchange in Brazil: Prelude

Experiments in Gujarat produce great results
South Africa latest information
Tyler Cohen updated 10-10-2024 07:41:42

The African Congress (ANC) no longer sees privatization as a "curse", but accepts that "investing in the private sector is not to sell the soul". Vice President said.

Vice President Mashatil said in an interview with the Financial Times, the new South African administration, whose power shares power with the marke t-related democracy, understands the need for private investment in fields such as energy, water, and infrastructure. He said he was doing it. "We need a private sector because we have no funds," said Massatil, who is the successor to President Syrill Lamafosa.

Investor psychology in South Africa has been dramatically improved since the establishment of GNU, 15 years after the economy has hardly grown during corruption scandals and governmen t-i n-mismanagement.

The South African rand has risen more than 12% against the US dollar this year, behind only the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's benchmark index has risen 21% in US dollar terms, including dividends.

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How economists think about victims of natural disasters

Marginal Revolution Podcast: Nobel Prize

A great conversation with Tom Tugendhat

What's happening at the center of the spiral galaxy M106?

A great conversation with Tom Tugendhat

Tyler Cohen Updated 10-10-2024 04:59:27

Below is the audio, video and transcript. Below is a summary of the episode:

Tom Tugendhat has served as a Member of Parliament since 2015, serving in various roles including Minister for Security and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. Prior to joining Parliament, he served in Iraq and Afghanistan. He also served in the Foreign Office, helping to set up the Afghanistan National Security Council and serving as military aide and principal advisor to the Chief of Defence Staff.

Tyler and Tom reflect on the evolved landscape of governance and leadership in the UK today, touching on the challenges of managing London under a centralised British system, why England remains economically unbalanced, his more controversial views on London architecture, whether YIMBYism can succeed in England and more. Kent's unique politics and history, whether the private school system needs reform, electing the largest unelected First Minister, whether Brexit has revealed the flaws in our parliamentary system, whether the House of Lords should be abolished, why the British monarchy continues to fascinate the world, devolution in Scotland and Northern Ireland, how learning Arabic in Yemen influenced his life, reading about the Middle East and Russia, Tom Tugendhat's mode of production, why talented young people should work in the British civil service, and much more.

Excerpt:

COWEN: Okay. First question: What is your favorite walk in London and what is something about the city that outsiders don't get?

Tugendat: Oh, my favorite walk is along the river. A lot of people walk under the river. There are two great things about walking along the river in London. First, London is actually an incredibly private place. Just walking along the river, you can very quickly be completely alone in the middle of one of the world's great cities. Even in the daytime, there's often no one there. You just pass unusual things. You pass by the customs house, which is no longer in use but was the customs house for 300, 400, 500 years. You pass by the Tower of London. You pass by Tower Bridge. You pass a lot of things like that.

You actually pass a very modern London as well, and you see the reality of London. There are a lot of different villages, cobbled together in many different ways. I think foreigners miss that there is a real intimacy in London. If you walk along the river, you see a totally different London. You see real communities, real little communities.

COHEN: Would the current parliamentary British government not work if it didn't have a broadly liberal individualistic base in public opinion?

TUGENDAT: I think it works very well in terms of making sure that it has a really liberal base. I mean, not in the American sense. Freedom of thought, freedom of assembly, property rights, all those principles have been put into various constitutions around the world, including yours. I think it works very well. There are 650 people who will have to work together in some way in Parliament over the next four or five years.

Currently, there are four conservative party candidates. There is a reason why the way they interact with each other is very different, despite the fact that they are competing with the US preliminary election system. No matter who wins, the idea that we have to cooperate with the other three and ignore each other. We have only 121 members in the Diet, but if this system is forced to use it, if you treat someone tomorrow, we have to treat each other, just as we treat them. That is. Don't forget that there are lon g-term interests, not the immediate interests.

It is very wise in every country, including China, Russia and Yemen.

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It is very wise in every country, including China, Russia and Yemen.

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Currently, the simplicity of the game has four conservative party candidates. There is a reason why the way of interacting with each other is very different, despite the fact that they are competing in the US preliminary election system. No matter who wins, the idea that we have to cooperate with the other three and ignore each other. We have only 121 members in the Diet, but if this system is forced to use it, if you treat someone tomorrow, we have to treat each other, just as we treat them. That is. Don't forget that there are lon g-term interests, not the immediate interests.
It is very wise in every country, including China, Russia and Yemen.
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Explore the excitement and popularity of Spin Casino

Updated friends 2024-10-10 00:42:16

The simplicity of the game

The simplicity of Spin Casino Game is one of the main factors in its continued popularity. Compared to sophisticated casino games like poker and blackjack, which require a certain level of understanding and technique, Spin Casino Game is arguably much simpler. All a player has to do is place a bet, press the "Spin" button, and watch the reels start spinning. The outcome is all down to luck, which is why these games can be played by beginners and experienced players alike.

Many players, especially those who are just starting out in the world of gaming, find this simplicity very appealing. Since there is no need to remember complex explanations or techniques, anyone can start playing right away. The thrill and appeal of these games is heightened by players who always live by the motto "one spin away from a possible jackpot", whatever the outcome.

Wide variety of themes and features

The wide range of themes and features offered by Spin Casino Game is another important factor that influences its appeal. Online casinos have thousands of slot games, each with a unique theme, from ancient Egyptian treasures to modern superheroes. This variety allows players to choose games that appeal to their specific interests and hobbies, enhancing their enjoyment of the game.
As well as themes, casino spin games can also incorporate exciting elements such as wild symbols, scatter symbols, free spins and bonus rounds. Why not give them a try? Explore Jackpot City SA and find what suits your tastes. These elements make the games fun and fresh, increasing your chances of winning while spiced up the game. A variety of unique features and unlimited themes ensure that players never get bored and there is always something new to discover.
Instantly gratifying thrills
Another reason why spin casino games are so popular is their fast-paced nature. Each round only takes a few seconds to play, so players receive instant feedback on whether they have won or lost. This quick play cycle allows players to get instant rewards, keeping them interested and motivated even after a fleeting big win.
The chance to hit a big jackpot, often with only a small bet, spurs the excitement of quick results. For example, progressive jackpot slots combine a portion of all players' bets in many games and casinos to create shockingly large amounts of money. Such games have an irresistible appeal, keeping players glued to the screen, implying that a single spin can bring a life-changing amount of money.
The role of technology in game improvement
The growing popularity of spin casino games has been greatly influenced by developments in technology. Early slot machines only had a few reels and a few symbols. Thanks to advances in software development, today's online spin casino games can offer sophisticated graphics, exciting animations, and interactive bonus rounds like those found in video games.
The latest casino spin games also employ cutting-edge technology, including random number generators (RNGs), to ensure that every spin is truly fair and random. Such game design and complexity have allowed spin casino games to transcend their humble origins and become fully immersive entertainment.
The Social Aspect of Online Slots
Casino spin games have always been considered a solitary pastime, especially in the Internet environment, but they have evolved to have a more social element. Today, many online casinos have multiplayer slots that allow users to communicate with each other while spinning the reels. Some platforms also offer live leaderboards and competitions, allowing users to compete for top prizes and bragging rights.
This camaraderie and rivalry add a new excitement to the gaming experience. Such features offer the best of both worlds for those who like the social element of gambling and want to enjoy simple casino games. Whether you just want to chat with other players or look for big results, the social aspect of online slots definitely adds to the lively and engaging experience.
The Psychology of Spin
In addition, there is also a psychological aspect to the appeal of spin casino games. Spinning the reels and waiting for the results creates excitement and anticipation, which releases dopamine, the "feel good" chemical in the brain. This dopamine boost keeps players hooked and more likely to keep playing, especially when a win is imminent or they receive a small payout.
Along with the chance to win, this psychological excitement forms a powerful loop with excitement and rewards, and drives the players further. Many prefer to experience casino games, such as music, lighting, and excitement that do not know what will happen next, rather than financial rewards.
Thursday
Calculated risk update 2024-10-09 23:43:00
Note: The mortgage interest rate is based on Mortgagenewsdaily. com, a to p-class scenario.
Thursday east of the United States, the first weekly unemployment benefit report will be announced. The consensus increased from 225, 000 last week to 228, 000.
-At 8:30 am in the eastern United States, the BLS will be announced in September Consumer Price Index. As for consensus, CPI increased by 0. 1 % and core CPI increased by 0. 2 %. As for consensus, CPI rose 2. 3 % yea r-o n-year and core CPI rose 3. 2 % year on year.
Finally, the most exciting but unexplored frontier

Eric Burger update 09-10-2024 11:30:26
I really hate telling me such bad news, but readers, we don't live forever.
You may be able to live for decades. But that is not enough to explain the world around other stars in a meaningful manner. These mysterious spheres are very far away in spatial and time. This galaxy is so large that the human for a lifetime is too short for a slow pace of space time. Therefore, we enjoy the universe and we must be satisfied with what is in our backyard.
If you are a certain age, for example, half a century, you may feel like you have missed the golden period of the space exploration that has entered this backyard for the first time. Not only what the moon was like, but the baby boomers, who were able to see people walking on it in real time, were really fortunate.
October 9, 1661 (Wednesday)
Samuel Pepis updated 2024-10-09 23:00:00 This psychological excitement forms a powerful loop with excitement and rewards and drives players further. Many prefer to experience casino games, such as music, lighting, and excitement that do not know what will happen next, rather than financial rewards.
Thursday

Calculated risk update 2024-10-09 23:43:00
Note: The mortgage interest rate is based on Mortgagenewsdaily. com, a to p-class scenario.
Thursday east of the United States, the first weekly unemployment benefit report will be announced. The consensus increased from 225, 000 last week to 228, 000.
-At 8:30 am in the eastern United States, the BLS will be announced in September Consumer Price Index. As for consensus, CPI increased by 0. 1 % and core CPI increased by 0. 2 %. As for consensus, CPI rose 2. 3 % yea r-o n-year and core CPI rose 3. 2 % year on year.
Finally, the most exciting but unexplored frontier

Eric Burger update 09-10-2024 11:30:26

I really hate telling me such bad news, but readers, we don't live forever.

You may be able to live for decades. But that is not enough to explain the world around other stars in a meaningful manner. These mysterious spheres are very far away in spatial and time. This galaxy is so large that the human for a lifetime is too short for a slow pace of space time. Therefore, we enjoy the universe and we must be satisfied with what is in our backyard.

If you are a certain age, for example, half a century, you may feel like you have missed the golden period of the space exploration that has entered this backyard for the first time. Not only what the moon was like, but the baby boomers, who were able to see people walking on it in real time, were really fortunate.

October 9, 1661 (Wednesday)

Samuel Pepis update 2024-10-09 23:00:00 This psychological excitement forms a strong loop with excitement and rewards, and drives the player further. Many prefer to experience casino games, such as music, lighting, and excitement that do not know what will happen next, rather than financial rewards.

Thursday

Calculated risk update 2024-10-09 23:43:00

Note: The mortgage interest rate is based on Mortgagenewsdaily. com, a to p-class scenario.

Thursday east of the United States, the first weekly unemployment benefit report will be announced. The consensus increased from 225, 000 last week to 228, 000.

-At 8:30 am in the eastern United States, the BLS will be announced in September Consumer Price Index. As for consensus, CPI increased by 0. 1 % and core CPI increased by 0. 2 %. As for consensus, CPI rose 2. 3 % yea r-o n-year and core CPI rose 3. 2 % year on year.

Finally, the most exciting but unexplored frontier

Eric Burger update 09-10-2024 11:30:26

I really hate telling me such bad news, but readers, we don't live forever.

You may be able to live for decades. But that is not enough to explain the world around other stars in a meaningful manner. These mysterious spheres are very far away in spatial and time. This galaxy is so large that the human for a lifetime is too short for a slow pace of space time. Therefore, we enjoy the universe and we must be satisfied with what is in our backyard.

If you are a certain age, for example, half a century, you may feel like you have missed the golden period of the space exploration that has entered this backyard for the first time. Not only what the moon was like, but the baby boomers, who were able to see people walking on it in real time, were really fortunate.

October 9, 1661 (Wednesday)

Samuel Pepis update 2024-10-09 23:00:00

This morning, I went out on a place and asked for the restoration of theorybo. I returned home again at noon and was going to dinner with Lord W. Rider with Lord Williams, but when I got home, Mrs. Pierce, La Bell and Madam Clifford, staying with them. I decided to do it. And I was very happy with the wonderful time with them, and after dinner, I took them to the theater and showed a "chance." Luerin, Braton, and my old friend Frank badge were to meet me. Frank Badge talked about Mrs. Mrs. Pepis, who lived with Mrs. Montag's sister, Mrs. Harvey. Still, she asks me and wants to have a sick room in my house now. I don't know if this is a Bague's strategy or her good intentions to do something for me. But I did not trust her and rejoiced to meet her, and told him that she would do as much as possible to provide a place for her. Then I was late from the carriage to my house.

Focusing on economics Nate Silver and Matt Iglesias of nuclear power

Noah Smith update 2024-10-09 19:03:42

We bloggers don't like anything as much as correct. In political discourse in general, in the hearts of many readers, I am often with Matt Igreesias and Nate Silver. In fact, I think both are doing wonderful jobs, and their opinions often agree. So it's especially fun to have the opportunity to discuss something with them! Different from a friend in terms of technical point of view is to be welcomed from shouting about presidential elections, threats to democracy, hurricanes, misinformation of FEMA, pet food suspicion, Vladimir Putin, etc. It's a distraction. Recently, Mat and Nate have argued about what I wrote (at least, I think Nate had been opposed), so I sewed between the elections and argued.

Matt Igreesias went out on a place this morning, who was wrong (a little) about the nucleus (a little), and asked for the restoration of Theolbo. I returned home again at noon and was going to dinner with Lord W. Rider with Lord Williams, but when I got home, Mrs. Pierce, La Bell and Madam Clifford, staying with them. I decided to do it. And I was very happy with the wonderful time with them, and after dinner, I took them to the theater and showed a "chance." Luerin, Braton, and my old friend Frank badge were to meet me. Frank Badge talked about Mrs. Mrs. Pepis, who lived with Mrs. Montag's sister, Mrs. Harvey. Still, she asks me and wants to have a sick room in my house now. I don't know if this is a Bague's strategy or her good intentions to do something for me. But I did not trust her and rejoiced to meet her, and told him that she would do as much as possible to provide a place for her. Then I was late from the carriage to my house.

Focusing on economics Nate Silver and Matt Iglesias of nuclear power

Noah Smith update 2024-10-09 19:03:42

We bloggers don't like anything as much as correct. In political discourse in general, in the hearts of many readers, I am often with Matt Igreesias and Nate Silver. In fact, I think both are doing wonderful jobs, and their opinions often agree. So it's especially fun to have the opportunity to discuss something with them! Different from a friend in terms of technical point of view is to be welcomed from shouting about presidential elections, threats to democracy, hurricanes, misinformation of FEMA, pet food suspicion, Vladimir Putin, etc. It's a distraction. Recently, Mat and Nate have argued about what I wrote (at least, I think Nate had been opposed), so I sewed between the elections and argued.

Matt Igreesias went out on a place this morning, which was (a little) wrong (a little), and asked for the restoration of Theolbo. I returned home again at noon and was going to dinner with Lord W. Rider with Lord Williams, but when I got home, Mrs. Pierce, La Bell and Madam Clifford, staying with them. I decided to do it. And I was very happy with the wonderful time with them, and after dinner, I took them to the theater and showed a "chance." Luerin, Braton, and my old friend Frank badge were to meet me. Frank Badge talked about Mrs. Mrs. Pepis, who lived with Mrs. Montag's sister, Mrs. Harvey. Still, she asks me and wants to have a sick room in my house now. I don't know if this is a Bague's strategy or her good intentions to do something for me. But I did not trust her and rejoiced to meet her, and told him that she would do as much as possible to provide a place for her. Then I was late from the carriage to my house.

Focusing on economics Nate Silver and Matt Iglesias of nuclear power

Noah Smith update 2024-10-09 19:03:42

Matt Igreesias is (a little) wrong about nuclear weapons

As Matt pointed out, he and I often make similar posts at the same time. So we tried to discuss the fact that we had a mats to oppose rumors that they were robots being manipulated by the same shadow super intelligent body. It is nuclear power generation. I posted a few weeks ago, but nuclear power would be a niche power source in the future (15-20 % of the power generation), and other things (solar (solar cells and batteries)) will be improved for most purposes. I wrote that it would not be a dominant form of electricity because it was just like:

Matt writes that most of this problem agrees, but I underestimate the importance of nuclear power:

Slow boring

Noah Smith is underestimating nuclear power

Noah Smith said almost the same as the article I was writing. So I was looking for something to fight him. And last week's article urged fission supporters to support nuclear power.

10 days ago --271 LIKE S-348 Comments --Matthew yglesiaS

In fact, most of what Mats are writing is what I agree. Most of the people opposed to nuclear power have a very wrong idea, surprisingly powerful in advanced circles. The symbolic nature of supporting nuclear power is important in that the spirit and science of richness are prioritized than the politicalized compensation agenda, which is widespread in the environmental protection movement. But he is wrong with the mats that don't really match me. He claims that nuclear power is important to make up for solar power in winter when the sun is weakest:

Nevertheless, there is a large difference between the limit cost when adding solar power and the average cost when building a total system. But it's not summer and winter, but on the scale of day and night. The current battery is not suitable for lon g-term storage. This is now due to the fact that electricity demand reaches the peak in the summer when people use air conditioners (according to the sun), but in the future of the net zero, they rely on heat pumps in winter. It's getting worse. As Matt pointed out, he and I often make similar posts at the same time in the same time. So we tried to discuss the fact that we had a mats to oppose rumors that they were robots being manipulated by the same shadow super intelligent body. It is nuclear power generation. I posted a few weeks ago, but nuclear power would be a niche power source in the future (15-20 % of the power generation), and other things (solar (solar cells and batteries)) will be improved for most purposes. I wrote that it would not be a dominant form of electricity because it was just like:

Matt wrote that we agree most of this problem, but I underestimate the importance of nuclear power:

Slow boring

Noah Smith is underestimating nuclear power

Noah Smith said almost the same as the article I was writing. So I was looking for something to fight him. And last week's article urged fission supporters to support nuclear power.

10 days ago --271 LIKE S-348 Comments --Matthew yglesiaS

In fact, most of what Mats are writing is what I agree. Most of the people opposed to nuclear power have a very wrong idea, surprisingly powerful in advanced circles. The symbolic nature of supporting nuclear power is important in that the spirit and science of richness are prioritized than the politicalized compensation agenda, which is widespread in the environmental protection movement. But he is wrong with the Matt's part that doesn't really match me. He claims that nuclear power is important to make up for solar power in winter when the sun is weakest:

Nevertheless, there is a large difference between the limit cost when adding solar power and the average cost when building a total system. But it's not summer and winter, but on the scale of day and night. The current battery is not suitable for lon g-term storage. This is now due to the fact that electricity demand reaches the peak in the summer when people use air conditioners (according to the sun), but in the future of the net zero, they rely on heat pumps in winter. It's getting worse. As Matt pointed out, he and I often make similar posts at the same time. So we tried to discuss the fact that we had a mats to oppose rumors that they were robots being manipulated by the same shadow super intelligent body. It is nuclear power generation. I posted a few weeks ago, but nuclear power would be a niche power source in the future (15-20 % of the power generation), and other things (solar (solar cells and batteries)) will be improved for most purposes. I wrote that it would not be a dominant form of electricity because it was just like:

Matt writes that most of this problem agrees, but I underestimate the importance of nuclear power:

Slow boring

Noah Smith is underestimating nuclear power

Noah Smith said almost the same as the article I was writing. So I was looking for something to fight him. And last week's article urged fission supporters to support nuclear power.

10 days ago --271 LIKE S-348 Comments --Matthew yglesiaS

In fact, most of what Mats are writing is what I agree. Most of the people opposed to nuclear power have a very wrong idea, surprisingly powerful in advanced circles. The symbolic nature of supporting nuclear power is important in that the spirit and science of richness are prioritized than the politicalized compensation agenda, which is widespread in the environmental protection movement. But he is wrong with the mats that don't really match me. He claims that nuclear power is important to make up for solar power in winter when the sun is weakest:

Nevertheless, there is a large difference between the limit cost when adding solar power and the average cost when building a total system. But it's not summer and winter, but on the scale of day and night. The current battery is not suitable for lon g-term storage. This is now due to the fact that electricity demand reaches the peak in the summer when people use air conditioners (according to the sun), but in the future of the net zero, they rely on heat pumps in winter. It's getting worse.

In fact, I was thinking so until recently, but the battery mechanism was wrong! It turns out that most batteries can accumulate energy for months without loss:

Lithiu m-ion batteries will be lost at least 83 % of energy in six months, as the amount of charging of 2 to 3 % per month will be lost. So, of course, you can definitely use a battery for seasonal storage. The reason for not doing so is the cost. To supplement the solar energy in winter, it is not economical to install extra batteries that are charged and discarded only once a year. But that's why nuclear power is not suitable for seasonal leveling. It can be covered by 100 % solar power from spring to autumn, but only 70 % in winter can be covered. In order to use nuclear power for seasonal smoothness, it is necessary to build a nuclear power plant that can supply 30 % of the usage in winter. However, this nuclear power plant stops driving during the remaining period of one year. Is it economical to build a nuclear power plant that uses only a quarter of a year? no. So no one does that. So how do you solve the seasonality of solar energy? In the green energy world, the standard answer is to create wind. Wind power is most effective in winter. However, wind power is often impossible because it requires more land than solar power. Another answer I propose is

Lon g-term energy storage is possible. Can you find the market?

(If you want to listen to reading, click the game above.

Listen now

Three years ag o-29 "Like!" - 16 Comment s-David Roberts Actually, I was thinking so until recently, but the battery mechanism was wrong! It turns out that most batteries can accumulate energy for months without loss:

Lon g-term energy storage is possible. Can you find the market?

(If you want to listen to reading, click the game above.

Listen now

Three years ag o-29 "Like!" - 16 Comment s-David Roberts Actually, I was thinking so until recently, but the battery mechanism was wrong! It turns out that most batteries can accumulate energy for months without loss:

Lithiu m-ion batteries will be lost at least 83 % of energy in six months, as the amount of charging of 2 to 3 % per month will be lost. So, of course, you can definitely use a battery for seasonal storage. The reason for not doing so is the cost. To supplement the solar energy in winter, it is not economical to install extra batteries that are charged and discarded only once a year. But that's why nuclear power is not suitable for seasonal leveling. It can be covered by 100 % solar power from spring to autumn, but only 70 % in winter can be covered. In order to use nuclear power for seasonal smoothness, it is necessary to build a nuclear power plant that can supply 30 % of the usage in winter. However, this nuclear power plant stops driving during the remaining period of one year. Is it economical to build a nuclear power plant that uses only a quarter of a year? no. So no one does that. So how do you solve the seasonality of solar energy? In the green energy world, the standard answer is to create wind. Wind power is most effective in winter. However, wind power is often impossible because it requires more land than solar power. Another answer I propose is

Lon g-term energy storage is possible. Can you find the market?

(If you want to listen to reading, click the game above.

Listen now

3 years ag o-29 "Like!" - 16 Comments --David Roberts
However, thanks to excessive construction, such expensive seasonal storage is not necessary. (Some of the small gas power plants are maintained to operate in winter, and the impact on the climate will not be so large). So what about nuclear power? It is when the land is limited (including the Far North area where the sun does not hit much). If geographical problems and Nimby cannot build solar power plants and lon g-range transmission lines, electricity that can generate power is needed near the place where they are. Nuclear power can do that. The problem is that Nimbee, which stops the construction of solar panels and transmission lines, is extremely unlikely to allow a larg e-scale nuclear power plant in their backyard. In some cases, Ninkby can prevent solar power plants and power transmission lines, but in some cases it cannot stop nuclear power, but it is probably unlikely. Of course, both the mat and I want to prevent all the nimbies and proceed with the construction, but if it succeeds, solar power and transmission lines will be more feasible. So the real case of the nuclear power plant
Nate Silver is wrong with the economy
The other day, I wrote an article about how bad the US economy is now:
David Roberts quoted my post and claimed that voters seek the government for meaningful results:
I think David is obviously wrong. Certainly, it is not enough to give a quiet result and hope that voters will notice. But what if inflation is still high or the unemployment rate is quite high? Trump would definitely have a stronger position. The atmosphere is not everything. In any case, but in any case, Nate Silver did not agree to Roberts, which is now the "best economy in the past few decades," but called "wrong information." However, thanks to excessive construction, such expensive seasonal storage is not necessary. (Some of the small gas power plants are maintained to operate in winter, and the impact on the climate will not be so large). So what about nuclear power? It is when the land is limited (including the Far North area where the sun does not hit much). If geographical problems and Nimby cannot build solar power plants and lon g-range transmission lines, electricity that can generate power is needed near the place where they are. Nuclear power can do that. The problem is that Nimbee, which stops the construction of solar panels and transmission lines, is extremely unlikely to allow a larg e-scale nuclear power plant in their backyard. In some cases, Ninkby can prevent solar power plants and power transmission lines, but in some cases it cannot stop nuclear power, but it is probably unlikely. Of course, both the mat and I want to prevent all the nimbies and proceed with the construction, but if it succeeds, solar power and transmission lines will be more feasible. So the real case of the nuclear power plant
Nate Silver is wrong with the economy
The other day, I wrote an article about how bad the US economy is now:

David Roberts quoted my post and claimed that voters seek the government for meaningful results:

I think David is obviously wrong. Certainly, it is not enough to give a quiet result and hope that voters will notice. But what if inflation is still high or the unemployment rate is quite high? Trump would definitely have a stronger position. The atmosphere is not everything. In any case, but in any case, Nate Silver did not agree to Roberts, which is now the "best economy in the past few decades," but called "wrong information." However, thanks to excessive construction, such expensive seasonal storage is not necessary. (Some of the small gas power plants are maintained to operate in winter, and the impact on the climate will not be so large). So what about nuclear power? It is when the land is limited (including the Far North area where the sun does not hit much). If geographical problems and Nimby cannot build solar power plants and lon g-range transmission lines, electricity that can generate power is needed near the place where they are. Nuclear power can do that. The problem is that Nimbee, which stops the construction of solar panels and transmission lines, is extremely unlikely to allow a larg e-scale nuclear power plant in their backyard. In some cases, Ninkby can prevent solar power plants and power transmission lines, but in some cases it cannot stop nuclear power, but it is probably unlikely. Of course, both the mat and I want to prevent all the nimbies and proceed with the construction, but if it succeeds, solar power and transmission lines will be more feasible. So the real case of the nuclear power plant

Nate Silver is wrong with the economy

The other day, I wrote an article about how bad the US economy is now:

David Roberts quoted my post and claimed that voters seek the government for meaningful results:

Nate cited the GDP growth rate as the reason why the current economy is average. But he is wrong for many reasons. First, the growth of the entire GDP depends on the population growth. If you want to compare changes in living standards, you have to use GDP per person. Except for the rising pandemic in 2021 (this was also a Biden administration), the growth rate per person in 2023 is better than any of the time since 2005, less than 2. 36 % in 2018. It exceeds:

The growth rate per capita in 2005 and 2006 is somewhat faster than 2023, but this will be explained later. Another mistake that Nate commits is that the current GDP growth rate is compared to the "lon g-term average." When David says 2023 as "the best economy in the last few decades," it is meaningless to compare 2023 with 1953 and 1963. Certainly, the economy grew rapidly for decades since the war. But David doesn't say anything about such old things. However, from the lon g-term average, 2023 is still pretty good. From 1948 to 2023: 2, 0% from 1980 to 2023: 1, 7% 2000 to 2023: From 1, 4% 2023: As you can see, 2023 is 3 It is a good result on average in all cases. However, not only such numerical discussions, but more important in a broader sense is not all the economy with good GDP growth. In fact, the first article I wrote did not mention GDP growth in one of the macro economy. I wrote this:

You want a high employment rate.

Overlooking a low and stable inflation rate so that people can know how much the dollar will be one month later.

We hope that wages will rise rapidly so that general workers can obtain before economic growth can be obtained.

And it is desirable to improve rapid productivity. Eventually, it creates sustainable life levels.

As pointed out by former CEA Chief Economist Arny Tedeschi, the labor market has been the highest economic situation since the 1990s.

I would like to add an early age employment rate, which is my favorite labor market index:

In addition, the growth of labor productivity seems to be more powerful than any period since the early 2000s (excluding the Great recession. Labor productivity is distorted by a very high unemployment rate and lo w-productivity workers. It was not counted on average):

In other words, these are some indicators, as David Roberts said, the economy between 2023 and 2024 is the best in the last few decades. Nate replied to Ernie that the economic fluctuation was averaged in accordance with its own internal models that affect the election. Ernie said it was due to NBER's official economic recession. The heated discussion continued. Which of this debate should try Nate or Ernie vary greatly depending on who thinks the economic indicators are for. Nate may be correct if the economy decides whether to be supported by voters. The fact that policy creators can control and voters are different. Voters are probably not only this year's finances, but also last year, two years ago, last year, two years ago. However, policy creators cannot control the past. For example, there is a good chance that many voters are still angry at inflation from 2021 to 22, despite the revival of inflation from 2024. I don't know if voters will go wrong around 2021. Let's evaluate David Roberts's claim that the current economy is the "best economy in the past few decades." The question here is here: If it's not the best, what kind of year do you choose? If the late 1990s were better than now, think only about the year since the century. Is the economy from 2018 to 2019 better than 2023 to 2024 economy? The employment in 2019 was almost the same as now, and it may have been slightly lower. The inflation rate was as low. The real average personal income was faster than 2023-24, but the wages of general workers were slower. As a whole, it was a very similar period in the macro economy. I think the difference between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024 is the growth of productivity. Labor productivity growth was about 1 or 5 % in the latter half of 2010, but last year it was about 2, 7 %. In my opinion, this is clearly better in 2023-24 than 2018-19. Productivity is a font that ultimately leads to good economic results. What about the economy in the early 2000s, the s o-called bush boom? Productivity growth was higher. , as David Roberts said, these are some indicators that show that the economy between 2023 and 2024 is the best in the last few decades. Nate replied to Ernie that the economic fluctuation was averaged in accordance with its own internal models that affect the election. Ernie said it was due to NBER's official economic recession. The heated discussion continued. Which of this debate should try Nate or Ernie vary greatly depending on who thinks the economic indicators are for. Nate may be correct if the economy decides whether to be supported by voters. The fact that policy creators can control and voters are different. Voters are probably not only this year's finances, but also last year, two years ago, last year, two years ago. However, policy creators cannot control the past. For example, there is a good chance that many voters are still angry at inflation from 2021 to 22, despite the revival of inflation from 2024. I don't know if voters will go wrong around 2021. Let's evaluate David Roberts's claim that the current economy is the "best economy in the past few decades." The question here is here: If it's not the best, what kind of year do you choose? If the late 1990s were better than now, think only about the year since the century. Is the economy from 2018 to 2019 better than 2023 to 2024 economy? The employment in 2019 was almost the same as now, and it may have been slightly lower. The inflation rate was as low. The real average personal income was faster than 2023-24, but the wages of general workers were slower. As a whole, it was a very similar period in the macro economy. I think the difference between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024 is the growth of productivity. Labor productivity growth was about 1 or 5 % in the latter half of 2010, but last year it was about 2, 7 %. In my opinion, this is clearly better in 2023-24 than 2018-19. Productivity is a font that ultimately leads to good economic results. What about the economy in the early 2000s, the s o-called bush boom? Productivity growth was higher. In other words, these are some indicators, as David Roberts said, the economy between 2023 and 2024 is the best in the last few decades. Nate replied to Ernie that the economic fluctuation was averaged in accordance with its own internal models that affect the election. Ernie said it was due to NBER's official economic recession. The heated discussion continued. Which of this debate should try Nate or Ernie vary greatly depending on who thinks the economic indicators are for. Nate may be correct if the economy decides whether to be supported by voters. The fact that policy creators can control and voters are different. Voters are probably not only this year's finances, but also last year, two years ago, last year, two years ago. However, policy creators cannot control the past. For example, there is a good chance that many voters are still angry at inflation from 2021 to 22, despite the revival of inflation from 2024. I don't know if voters will go wrong around 2021. Let's evaluate David Roberts's claim that the current economy is the "best economy in the past few decades." The question here is here: If it's not the best, what kind of year do you choose? If the late 1990s were better than now, think only about the year since the century. Is the economy from 2018 to 2019 better than 2023 to 2024 economy? The employment in 2019 was almost the same as now, and it may have been slightly lower. The inflation rate was as low. The real average personal income was faster than 2023-24, but the wages of general workers were slower. As a whole, it was a very similar period in the macro economy. I think the difference between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024 is the growth of productivity. Labor productivity growth was about 1 or 5 % in the latter half of 2010, but last year it was about 2, 7 %. In my opinion, this is clearly better in 2023-24 than 2018-19. Productivity is a font that ultimately leads to good economic results. What about the economy in the early 2000s, the s o-called bush boom? Productivity growth was higher.

Until the mysterious economic deceleration in 2005. The productivity growth in 2005-07 was worse than today, despite the highest state of the labor market in the last decade. The real GDP growth rate in 2004-05 was a bit higher than today, probably 2. 7 % for the current 2. 4 %. The inflation rate was slightly higher than now, and in 2004-07 it was around 3 %. The labor market in the 2000s was not as good as it is now, but it was quite close in 2007. Overall, it is a very close comparison. In other words, there were three peaks of the economic circulation since this century, but all were almost the same level. If I could choose one, I would choose the 2023-24 year when the productivity increased and the truly excellent labor markets are combined. But if you choose 2018-19 or 2005-6, I will not call you Crazy. In any case, it is not the wrong information that the United States is currently in the "best economic state in the past few decades."

I don't know if it's the name Brad Delong.

In other words, it should be compared to the geometric average, not arithmetic average. However, the geometric average is slightly lower than the arithmetic average, so here we will compare it to a slightly higher and slightly higher number.

Is Nate actually here? The indicator of the consumption and income he chose seems to be the total, not per capita. Did he try the number per person? In addition, since the presidential election is not frequently held, the indicators chosen by Nate are likely to fall into spec search (overload). Finally, there may be structural changes. He is now interested in inflation, but may have been interested in employment several decades ago.

October 9, 2024. Great color.

PATRICK update 2024-10-09 19:02:06 Until the mysterious economic deceleration in 2005. The productivity growth in 2005-07 was worse than today, despite the highest state of the labor market in the last decade. The real GDP growth rate in 2004-05 was a bit higher than today, probably 2. 7 % for the current 2. 4 %. The inflation rate was slightly higher than now, and in 2004-07 it was around 3 %. The labor market in the 2000s was not as good as it is now, but it was quite close in 2007. Overall, it is a very close comparison. In other words, there were three peaks of the economic circulation since this century, but all were almost the same level. If I could choose one, I would choose the 2023-24 year when the productivity increased and the truly excellent labor markets are combined. But if you choose 2018-19 or 2005-6, I will not call you Crazy. In any case, it is not the wrong information that the United States is currently in the "best economic state in the past few decades."

I don't know if it's the name Brad Delong.

Is Nate actually here? The indicator of the consumption and income he chose seems to be the total, not per capita. Did he try the number per person? In addition, since the presidential election is not frequently held, the indicators chosen by Nate are likely to fall into spec search (overload). Finally, there may be structural changes. He is now interested in inflation, but may have been interested in employment several decades ago.

October 9, 2024. Great colors.

PATRICK Update 2024-10-09 19: 02: 062005 Until the mysterious economic deceleration. The productivity growth in 2005-07 was worse than today, despite the highest state of the labor market in the last decade. The real GDP growth rate in 2004-05 was a bit higher than today, probably 2. 7 % for the current 2. 4 %. The inflation rate was slightly higher than now, and in 2004-07 it was around 3 %. The labor market in the 2000s was not as good as it is now, but it was quite close in 2007. Overall, it is a very close comparison. In other words, there were three peaks of the economic circulation since this century, but all were almost the same level. If I could choose one, I would choose the 2023-24 year when the productivity increased and the truly excellent labor markets are combined. But if you choose 2018-19 or 2005-6, I will not call you Crazy. In any case, it is not the wrong information that the United States is currently in the "best economic state in the past few decades."

I don't know if it's the name Brad Delong.

October 9, 2024. Great colors.

PATRICK update 2024-10-09 19:02:06

Anyway, I want to salute the longevity of Air France's color scheme. It's truly mind-blowing how long the airline has worn its current livery. And it should be, it's one of the best designs in the business. In the late 1970s, Air France was one of the first major airlines to drop the horizontal "Zur line" and move to what aviation geeks call "Eurowhite." And for over 40 years, this design has served Air France well. It's had minor changes over the years; the tail stripes have been softened and the font has recently been revised to spell out the "fuselage" association. But the overall pattern has remained the same. I don't think any other airline has been as consistent in color. The circular logo near the cockpit (pictured above) is called the Aire Seahorse and dates to the 1930s, featuring the head of Pegasus with the tail of a mythical sea dragon. I'm glad Air France didn't discard the emblem as anachronistic. Rather than discarding the emblem as an anachronism, Air France expanded it and moved it to the front. Photo by author The post October 9, 2024, Great colors.

Automatic identification in smart glasses

Bruce Schneier Updated 2024-10-07 16:36:18

Two students have created a demo of a smart glasses app that performs automatic facial recognition and information retrieval. Naturally, it's a creepy demonstration that draws attention. News article

Peter Gelb vs. Elliot Carter Opera
Alex Ross Updated 2024-10-10 02:04:39
Rarely paying attention to classical music, New York Post Six Six Pages reported on a strange attack on Peter Gerbu recently set up in New York Times Classic Music Critics, Zachary Wolf. Gelve seems to have said this at the Upper East donation event: "Some critics, not all critics, but some critics, music is popular with many audiences. He complained about the idea that it should be enjoyed by more people, "some critics have" advertised ". "This is a nonsense in some ways. First, the opera written by Elliott Carter is only one song" 47 thin, what next ", and as far as I know, this opera is performed in Met. No one is exercising. This observation tells Gerbu's basic indifferent in modern music. Second, Wolf is not a person who strictly supports the complexity of modernism. Gelve seems to be confused by the late Charles Urinen. Third, Met has been taken up generously in the time of the period, and it is rather unwanted that the leader attacks in this regard. Fourth, in the United States, only a handful of newspapers have classical critics.
Aurora may appear in part of California due to the solar storm, and some of the California
Sean 'Dydy' Komu's sex investigation will seize data from telobytes from mobile phones and computers.
Folding the Fentanyl that CHP was packed in carnet Asada in Fresn o-gun
Judge Flash Mob, a robbery
A can a can in a highway and a police officer prosecuted a fatal accident and driver
Gascon tried to liable Ryan Garcia for damages for hotel destruction. The judge rejected this.
A gascon that tries to cut down the Luckman's lead in the prosecutor's election, a harsh exchange at a discussion
Five people died in the crash of Catalina. Words that the owner of the former flight instructor spoke on the plane
L. A. River champions offer a vision to reconsider the future of the waterway and the city
Ant i-Asian slander carved on the signboard of Huntington Beach's "Dave Min House of Representatives". Suspect arrest
Ross Police Director, the police officer who fired a man sleeping with a gun, denied the findings
Scientists have long called on NASA to find signs of life near Jupiter. It's happening now.

Release a former school executive of Long Beach who shot and killed at the age of 18
Research results The severe COVID-19 has increased the risk of heart attack and stroke as much as heart disease.
Hospitals in California, restricted expansion and struggled to recover earthquake

Five points from the test discussion of both shifts and gerbei candidates in the U. S. Senate

The end of Haan Hall? Los Angeles County takes the first step in the acquisition of a gas company tower
Former CFO of Tom Girardi Law Office, recognized by telegraph fraud
An arson criminal that caused two fires in northern California is charged
Gabin Newsam participates in collecting funds by Tim Waltz at Sacramento
Kindle Prime Day bargain and 9 accessories (2024)
Best offers of mattress Prime Day and magnificent bedding discount (2024)
Hurricane "Milton" indicates how the stormy category does not talk about the whole picture

Amazon Prime Day hair tools that can be shoped right now (2024)

28 Prime Day toys (2024)

22 selections of Prime Day Purchase Laptops (2024)

Tim Walz rally is a live broadcast on Twitch stream of World of WarCraft

OpenBSD 7. 6 is released

Internet Archive, affected 31 million users due to "catastrophic" infringement

The bankruptcy Fisker and EV data cannot be migrated, and a million dollar fleet contract is risky

Click on the chart to see a larger image.

After winning the Nobel Prize, Jeffrey Hinton said Ilya Skills Kar was proud of being "fired Sam Altoman."

Apple holds a "cozy" WWDC mini for VISIONOS

John Gruver Update 09-10-2024 01:12:30

Invitation mystery is a genre of a criminal novel, a socially intimate small community is set, and violence is restricted or occurs outside the screen. Yesterday, I experienced "cozy WWDC"!

The event was held in an intimate atmosphere with about 170 developers. There were no large sketches, no competition holes, and there were no unusual products designed to discourage the media and influencers, and there were no media. The event entitled Envision The Future: Create Great Apps for Visionos was held on October 2 at the Apple Developer Center in Kupachino.

This event, focusing on VISIONOS alone, ended in just one day.

The presenter was alive. Many wrote the code and showed the results live. The demonstration did not work at least once.

Some other participants have heard that this was a wonderful and very productive event.

Broadcast has reduced Google Drive support for Google's annual code review.

John Gruber update 2024-10-09 00:54:48

Google has set a new policy for the application connected to Google Drive to receive an annual review that is costly and time. As a result, it has become very difficult to maintain a reasonable access to Google Drive. You may have seen the announcement that the IA author will cancel the development of the Android version for the same reason. Our experience is different, but the situation is similar. [.]

Waiting for weeks, submitting the necessary documents, and the process of scanning the code, it took a considerable amount of time for our engineers. For example, Google provided a Docker image that the scanner operates, but it did not work. We had to spend more than a week for debugging and corrections. And the scanner did not find any problems, so it did not lead to improving the transmission. No one gained in this process. Google, panic, and our users. [.]

But then ... a few months later, Google completely deleted the option to scanning its own code. Instead, he had to pay for a review to Google's business partner to maintain access to Google Drive. They promised the lowest prices, but they would not lower the highest price. We realized that it was probably either paying a lot of money to someone else to execute the same scanner as we were doing, or our billing amount would be much higher.

I've never been glad I didn't use Google Drive. "President Trump's speech has strengthened age issues", the New York Times.

John Gruver update 2024-10-09 00:36:39

Where is the political interest?

Former President Donald J. Trump emphasized how the audience was his ally at a discussion with Vice President Camara Harris. Except that there was no audience. The discussion was held in a room without anyone. As Mr. Trump said, no one was "enthusiastic" because no one was there.

Of course, everyone may make mistakes. But the conversation was just a week ago, a very impressive moment. It was only at this time that Mr. Trump was confused, forgetful, incoherent, and was separated from reality. In fact, this has happened frequently recently, and it is no longer attracting much attention.

You blame yourself, repeat, wander from thinking to thinking, some of which are hard to understand, unfinished things, and really wonderful. He makes a ridiculous claim as he made. About golf, sharks, about your "beautiful" body, a strange aside. After spending a day in Georgia, he enjoys a wonderful day in Louisiana. North Korea shows fear that he is trying to kill me, probably in Iran. Until last month, Trump had made a statement in response to President Biden five weeks after President Biden declined.

Sooner or later, if Joe Biden passed through the "enthusiasm of the audience" in a discussion without the audience, the New York Times would have been a big fuss the next day, not a month later.

I don't think Donald Trump was online. But, like his father, he has clearly lost one of the few marbles to become dementia. The sign was revealed during the term of 2017 to 2021:

John F. Kelly, Chief of the Second White House, is convinced that Trump is psychologically losing his balance, and is "Danger of Donald Trump's Dangerous Expert". I bought a book called a case and tried to understand the boss more. As a result, Kelly began to call Trump's White House "Crazy Town."

Of course, "Times" paper had to write both sides of this article:

Trump's former political adviser Sam Numbergu says he has never heard of concerns about his former president's age, although he still talks about people who meet Mr. Trump almost every day. Ta. "I can't feel a big difference." I don't know. "

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

If you haven't seen Trump's speeches in a while because you're in the "Fuck the guy" group like any decent voter, you should watch the clips excerpted by the Times for this article. Like I said, I don't think this guy was online, but it's clear that he's in serious decline today.
My suggestion to the Harris campaign is to keep describing Trump as "80 years old" and have his surrogates correct him to "still" being 78.
Two Russian YouTubers Post Unboxing Video of Base Model MacBook Pro, Presumably M4
John Gruber Updated 2024-10-08 23:48:21
Joe Rossignol, Writing for MacRumors:
Monday, August 12, 2024

Kidney exchange in Brazil: Prelude

Dr. Alexis Karell, who first discovered this kind of blood vessel surgery, won the Nobel Science and Medicine Award in 1912. The post concluded: "I was able to finish an exciting trip on Saturday, but it's not my story yet, so I'll come again after the official announcement."
Helene and Milton ask us: A home insurance crisis?
Terry H. Schwadron Updated 10-10-2024 12:07:06

This is Juli Clover from Macrumors:

In the release notes for the sixth beta of MacOS' Sequoia 15. 1 update, Apple says that users will see fewer popups for apps they use regularly.

Apps using frustrated content capture technology are now improving users' awareness policies. Users less likely to see dialogue if they use the apps that are already aware and accepted and accepted.

Why did Apple consider a screen recorder app?

Crazy Sodo Tech

John Gruver Updated 2024-10-09 22:58:32

New website / newsletter by OM Malik and Fred Vogelstein:

We have been chasing Silicon Valley innovation machines for over 50 years. We have seen a lot. However, a certain observation stands out. The best idea, the idea of launching an important company, must be crazy and stupid at first.

Amazon, Google and Facebook are now one of the most vibrant companies in the world, but both were completely unacceptable. When Jeff Bezos started Amazon 30 years ago as an online bookstore, most people did not even know what the Internet was. Larry Page and Sergey Bulin founded Google in 1998. In the 2000s, the Beta Facebook, developed by Mark Zuckerberg, was able to fundamentally change the use of billions of people on the Internet.

What makes many entrepreneurs curious and interesting is such a savior religion for such a vision. Most of the surroundings say, "It's wrong," and you need a unique personality to keep saying "I'm right" for years.

I love that purpose.

MOOM 4 is great, but it is not available on the Mac App Store.

John Gruber update 2024-10-09 16:09:16

Moom 4 is only available directly from many tricks. Not available on the Mac App Store. In our choice, it should be on the Mac App Store, but not our choices.

Why isn't it in the Mac app store? The Mac app store does not allow apps that are not sandboxed. And Moom 4 cannot be sandboxed because it uses the accessibility API. So, how was Moom 3, which also uses the accessibility API, on the Mac App Store? It's easy. MOOM 3 was allowed to leave it in the store unless Apple had been in the store before he demanded that all Mac App Store apps would be sandboxed.

If Apple changes the rules, we plan to submit Moom 4 to the Mac App Store screening, but until the rules change, we have no choice but to obtain Moom 4 from us.

A perfect example of the shortcomings of the Mac App Store. MacOS 15 Sequoia adds new features for Windows that, on the surface, might seem like Sherlock Moom - a long-standing MAC utility that automates window sizing/adjusting. But Moom does more than Sequoia's tiling features. It's a great utility from a great developer, but it also has a lot of tricks that aren't allowed in the Mac App Store.

Microsoft Microsoft Ends Surface Software Updates

John Gruber updated 2024-10-09 15:36:52

Zac Bowden, writing for Windows Central:

The Surface Duo 2 has received its final security update, bringing an end to Microsoft's brief return to the smartphone market. The company initially launched the Surface Duo 2 in October 2021 with a promise of three years of software update support. Microsoft was only able to offer one major version update for Android at the time.

It's not that Microsoft only managed to deliver one major update to Android in three years. I'm talking about Microsoft. It's that they only bothered to deliver major updates. In the hardware game, commitment is highly underrated.

Coversutra (I think!) Returns

John Gruber updated 2024-10-09 16:06:38

Halloween-themed fun

Home Depot gradually rolls out Apple Pay support

John Gruber updated 2024-10-09 15:37:44

Chance Miller, writing for 9to5mac:

Home Depot recently rolled out support for Apple Pay, according to reports from multiple readers and on social media at 9to5mac. Home Depot was a major Apple Pay holdout, offsetting pressure from customers to add support for Apple's Tap-to-Pay platform. Specifically, Lowe's biggest competitor, Home Depot, rolled out support for Apple Pay in December of last year. Lowe's move is sure to put pressure on Home Depot to change its strategy.

Home Depot hasn't commented on the change in direction, and details of the rollout are unclear. It appears to be a very gradual expansion that began with a handful of locations over the summer and has recently picked up steam. But at this point, your mileage may vary.

It may be completely wrong, but I don't think Home Depot always opposed Apple Pay. I think they bought a strange POS system that did not support it. It's a strange terminal. And what we are happening now is not to be sel f-employed in Apple Pay, but to replace those POS devices with Apple Pay for Apple Pay.

Wa l-Mart is still the largest failure in Apple Pay, and there is no sign of changing the policy.

In the case of Wa l-Mart, I think it's strategic not to support Apple Pay. But I think they are wrong, and sooner or later (perhaps) their thoughts. Wa l-Mart broke out just a few years ago from the "Payed QR code" system. Apple Pay is only a private way to pay by credit card or debit card, nor than that. Whatever the strategic reason Wa l-Mart opposes Apple Pay, I think that it will be a customer desire to use the Wa l-Mart's unique digital payment system, but they are not qualified.

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

Acquisition of the fifth mobile phone antenna in East Boston, Belizon. Some residents are when they will be completed.
Consultant group to consider a larg e-scale battery system planned for Brighton and Loss Lindale/ Hyde Park Line
According to Kure, Boston housing owners could jump by 28 % unless the members allowed commercial land taxation.
At least for Cyanobacteria toxins, it is safe to return to the Charles River from the long fellow.
The five townhouse condominiums on the back of Seylon Park have been rejected to have the angry neighbors and developers resolve.
Monday, August 12, 2024

Rape is a crime of physical violence

text

Josh Marshall update 2024-10-09 00:38:19 It may be completely wrong, but I don't think Home Depot always opposed Apple Pay. I think they bought a strange POS system that did not support it. It's a strange terminal. And what we are happening now is not to be sel f-employed in Apple Pay, but to replace those POS devices with Apple Pay for Apple Pay.

Wa l-Mart is still the largest failure in Apple Pay, and there is no sign of changing the policy.

In the case of Wa l-Mart, I think it's strategic not to support Apple Pay. But I think they are wrong, and sooner or later (perhaps) their thoughts. Wa l-Mart broke out just a few years ago from the "Payed QR code" system. Apple Pay is only a private way to pay by credit card or debit card, nor than that. Whatever the strategic reason Wa l-Mart opposes Apple Pay, I think that it will be a customer desire to use the Wa l-Mart's unique digital payment system, but they are not qualified.

Barbara Lynch shut down everything

Acquisition of the fifth mobile phone antenna in East Boston, Belizon. Some residents are when they will be completed.

Consultant group to consider a larg e-scale battery system planned for Brighton and Loss Lindale/ Hyde Park Line

According to Kure, Boston housing owners could jump by 28 % unless the members allowed commercial land taxation.

At least for Cyanobacteria toxins, it is safe to return to the Charles River from the long fellow.

The five townhouse condominiums on the back of Seylon Park have been rejected to have the angry neighbors and developers resolve.
A doctor of Tafutsu Er, complained of a hospital because he was fired because he refused Cobid 19 injection in 2021

Rape is a crime of physical violence
text
Josh Marshall update 2024-10-09 00:38:19 It may be completely wrong, but I don't think Home Depot always opposed Apple Pay. I think they bought a strange POS system that did not support it. It's a strange terminal. And what we are happening now is not to be sel f-employed in Apple Pay, but to replace those POS devices with Apple Pay for Apple Pay.
Wa l-Mart is still the largest failure in Apple Pay, and there is no sign of changing the policy.
In the case of Wa l-Mart, I think it's strategic not to support Apple Pay. But I think they are wrong, and sooner or later (perhaps) their thoughts. Wa l-Mart broke out just a few years ago from the "Payed QR code" system. Apple Pay is only a private way to pay by credit card or debit card, nor than that. Whatever the strategic reason Wa l-Mart opposes Apple Pay, I think that it will be a customer desire to use the Wa l-Mart's unique digital payment system, but they are not qualified.
Barbara Lynch shut down everything
Acquisition of the fifth mobile phone antenna in East Boston, Belizon. Some residents are when they will be completed.
Consultant group to consider a larg e-scale battery system planned for Brighton and Loss Lindale/ Hyde Park Line
According to Kure, Boston housing owners could jump by 28 % unless the members allowed commercial land taxation.
At least for Cyanobacteria toxins, it is safe to return to the Charles River from the long fellow.
The five townhouse condominiums on the back of Seylon Park have been rejected to have the angry neighbors and developers resolve.
A doctor of Tafutsu Er, complained of a hospital because he was fired because he refused Cobid 19 injection in 2021
Rape is a crime of physical violence
text
Josh Marshall update 2024-10-09 00:38:19

Many have received text messages for the election campaign. If it requires money, it's not very important. But I am particularly interested in putting the news nugget in front of you to vote for a candidate or another candidate. If you're receiving them and don't ask them to stop, I'm very interested in seeing them. Ideally, it would be great if you press a stamp and send it to a normal TPM email. If you can cut and paste, that is also effective. Please tell me what you saw. Also, if possible, please give me general information to know where you got it, and what kind of people the election campaigns are being sent to the politician's profile.
Link collection 10/9/24

mikethemadbiologist update 2024-10-09 20:42:19

Link collection science

Conventional interviews are not always useful

mikethemadbiologist update 2024-10-09 14:00:36

Josh Marshall commented that Vice President Harris was reluctant in interviews with (some) major news agencies (bold):

However, the cycle of this presidential election has a slightly different point. Harris is now in question from the press inside Beltway, such as instant sessions with CNN's Dana Bash and instant sessions with reporters at the U S-Black Journalist Association, which was actually one of the questioners. I'm answering. However, these interviews have been focused on repeatedly asking questions on procedures and opposition attacks over and over again. In an interview with Dana Bash Harris and Waltz, whether Harris had "decided" about mining, why and his wife were relevant but did in vitro fertilization instead of another infertility treatment. The questions, such as, were most focused. In other words, it was not actually essential. It's more controlled. However, if there is no basis for the details of the policy, why is the potential voter understood as a candidate, the rights of abortions, employment, outside war, and immigration policies. I don't know if it's better than a long interview that is really connected. The whole proposal is a candidate for the power of the election exercise monitoring team, rather than the special questions and the special questions that are specially held by the election.

I should note here: I'm not singling out Dana Bash. Her interview is what we now expect from major media interviews. The problem is not the interviewer, but the format, the type of interview. Not only are these interviews terribly unworthy of a candidate, they're also unworthy of journalism. You can tell a candidate that you prefer to shoot down MSM interviews without guilt...

Surf Twitter for a few days to get a feel for the current lines of attack, and you're basically set. It's harsh, but not overly so.

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

Various thoughts on polling
Josh Marshall Updated 2024-10-09 19:15:37
I would like to share with you some ideas, possible tidbits, and reservations about election polling. These are mostly not original to me, just some general points, observations, etc.
First, about shepherding: Shepherding is the phenomenon where even professional pollsters start to bunch up late in an election campaign because they don't want to stray too far from the consensus numbers. Right now, the national top line has been between 2 and 4 points for Harris for several months now. When you get a poll that puts either of them at plus 10, you start to think or believe that there is something wrong with your numbers. In some sense, the data is just corrupted. Maybe you don't run that poll, maybe you look at the numbers again and decide they're too low for some demographic subset and reweight them, and then the baseline resets closer to that 2-4 range.
Also, in the final weeks of a campaign, voter choices become more stable. So voters may actually be cutting corners. There are many possibilities. But the general point here is that there are factors that lead even ethical and professional pollsters towards these kinds of herds.
Monday, August 12, 2024

Kidney exchange in Brazil: Prelude

Experiments in Gujarat produce great results
The stability of this race is one of the biggest features of this race. It may be how the people's hearts are calm about this choice. It must be some people. However, I have recently heard that it has suggested another possibility: may have the overall movement disappeared from the numbers because public opinion surveys have become too aggressive.
In a previous discussion, we remember that public opinion polls pointed out not only 500 to 1. 000 public opinion polls, but also based on elections of elections. That is the part of voting art and science art. Modeling is becoming more aggressive as the answer is more and more bigger. Not only men, women, blacks and white people, but also wealthy, educational levels, cities and regions, voting methods when voted last time, and political party identity. At one point, you need 49 % of Trump supporters and 49 % for Harris supporters. Of course. The lace may be stable because the vary is compressed by the active modeling. Nobody suggests this as a mere idea, more than "if". But it's worth putting in one corner of your head. Needless to say, past companies are probably the same. Most of the voters of mass garbage have raised abnormal flags in the election season, but for the last few weeks they try to keep their reputation in a flock.

The stability of this race is one of the biggest features of this race. It may be how the people's hearts are calm about this choice. It must be some people. However, I have recently heard that it has suggested another possibility: may have the overall movement disappeared from the numbers because public opinion surveys have become too aggressive.

In a previous discussion, we remember that public opinion polls pointed out not only 500 to 1. 000 public opinion polls, but also based on elections of elections. That is the part of voting art and science art. Modeling is becoming more aggressive as the answer is more and more bigger. Not only men, women, blacks and white people, but also wealthy, educational levels, cities and regions, voting methods when voted last time, and political party identity. At one point, you need 49 % of Trump supporters and 49 % for Harris supporters. Of course. The lace may be stable because the vary is compressed by the active modeling. Nobody suggests this as a mere idea, more than "if". But it's worth putting in one corner of your head.

Then there is an article written by Nate Corn on Times. He describes the basic methodology of this year's opinion polls. Historically, the weight of voters voted in the previous election has always been a bad habit for polls. Basically, people don't always remember how they voted, nor did they talk about the truth. In addition, political parties that lost in the previous election tend to be advantageous. In other words, according to the traditional criteria and recognized methodological considerations, the recognition of voters that the weight of public opinion polls has created a situation that has been advantageous to Trump with every result. However, in order to make Trump overlooking hidden voters more effectively, not all opinion polls, but most of the polls have decided to value voters in 2024. This is not an obviously bad idea, as Corn explains. Opinion polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020, and there are a number of ways to explain the reason why public opinion polls are traditionally bad. I think Corn's point is correct, but this decision leads to two different election stories. I have argued that there is enough reason to think that public opinion polls have been adjusted here and after 2024 after 2024.

Finally, let's talk about the question that public opinion polls after 2020 have been overestimated. I am an outsider of the polls on the methodology of polls. I understand rough things. However, I am a loser in evaluating whether it is meaningful or not as a methodology. However, there are doubts about 2020 and the fact that there is a fairly meaningful opinion poll in that year. As the results of 2016 were shocking, people have forgotten that the difference in opinion polls was quite small. I think it was about 1 or 5 points in the United States. This is not a gap in the constituency. The important thing was where it appeared in important situations. In the 2020 mistake and 2020, there was a big difference of about 4 points. Then there is an article written by Nate Corn on the Times paper. He describes the basic methodology of this year's opinion polls. Historically, the weight of voters voted in the previous election has always been a bad habit for polls. Basically, people don't always remember how they voted, nor did they talk about the truth. In addition, political parties that lost in the previous election tend to be advantageous. In other words, according to the traditional criteria and recognized methodological considerations, the recognition of voters that the weight of public opinion polls has created a situation that has been advantageous to Trump with every result. However, in order to make Trump overlooking hidden voters more effectively, not all opinion polls, but most of the polls have decided to value voters in 2024. This is not an obviously bad idea, as Corn explains. Opinion polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020, and there are a number of ways to explain the reason why public opinion polls are traditionally bad. I think Corn's point is correct, but this decision leads to two different election stories. I have argued that there is enough reason to think that public opinion polls have been adjusted here and after 2024 after 2024.

Finally, let's talk about the question that public opinion polls after 2020 have been overestimated. I am an outsider of the polls on the methodology of polls. I understand rough things. However, I am a loser in evaluating whether it is meaningful or not as a methodology. However, there are doubts about 2020 and the fact that there is a fairly meaningful opinion poll in that year. As the results of 2016 were shocking, people have forgotten that the difference in opinion polls was quite small. I think it was about 1 or 5 points in the United States. This is not a gap in the constituency. The important thing was where it appeared in important situations. In the 2020 mistake and 2020, there was a big difference of about 4 points. Then there is an article written by Nate Corn on Times. He describes the basic methodology of this year's opinion polls. Historically, the weight of voters voted in the previous election has always been a bad habit for polls. Basically, people don't always remember how they voted, nor did they talk about the truth. In addition, political parties that lost in the previous election tend to be advantageous. In other words, according to the traditional criteria and recognized methodological considerations, the recognition of voters that the weight of public opinion polls has created a situation that has been advantageous to Trump with every result. However, in order to make Trump overlooking hidden voters more effectively, not all opinion polls, but most of the polls have decided to value voters in 2024. This is not an obviously bad idea, as Corn explains. Opinion polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020, and there are a number of ways to explain the reason why public opinion polls are traditionally bad. I think Corn's point is correct, but this decision leads to two different election stories. I have argued that there is enough reason to think that public opinion polls have been adjusted here and after 2024 after 2024.

What people don't really pay attention to is that 2020 was a really special year for elections and for voting. A significant portion of the population worked from home through 2020 and mailed in their ballots so they wouldn't risk their health by going to the polls. And another group tended to do the opposite principledly. Needless to say, this divergence correlated heavily with political identity. This is such a behavioral and sociological fact that it seems questionable to derive anything from it about how things would work in a non-pandemic election. One theory I've heard is that maybe Democrats stayed home more than Republicans and were more likely to participate in polls that year. I don't know if that contributed to voting errors. In cases like this, you have to be very careful about wishful thinking. But like some of the other points, it's worth keeping in mind. It seems generally inevitable that many important behaviors were different in 2020, often depending on party identification, so it's hard to draw lessons from it with confidence. In defense of the pollsters, they might not say: "2020 was weird. 2020 was crazy.

The underbelly of text campaigns and the shocking anti-Semitism found there

Josh Marshall Updated 2024-10-09 16:42:19

When I asked to see the text messages you receive, I was mostly interested in the presidential race, and even more interested in the ones from the right. I'm also interested in the ones on the Harris side and the big Senate races. It's fascinating and enlightening to see the parts of the campaign that tend to go underground and the ones that fly under the radar. But I was particularly struck by this article, which won the TPM Leader BG in New York.

He claims to be a group called "Turn Left" related to Richard Ogen, West Virginia. The name of Oehei is not well known. But you may remember him. He voted for Trump in 2016, and later in the limelight as a West Virginian Democratic Party member of the West Virginian Democratic Party. In 2018 and 2020, he attracted attention as a candidate to buy the Democratic Party in a strong rural playing card. This advertisement combines a hustle of the hurricane, a hurricane misinformation that gives a $ 750 check to the victims of a hurricane, and the "genmetic AIPAC", a traditional flower shape of ant i-Semitism, "deeply biting into Washington." That's what it is. "

"If a massacre group like AIPAC saves leaders, this is the case. The same corrupt politicians will fertilize my stomach with blood taxes, look at our eyes, and for medical care, education, and disaster relief. Say nothing.

The full text is after jumping ...

Needless to say, many people oppose military assistance to Israel in the United States. And AIPAC has many criticisms, including me. However, such phrases and such phrases are the common practice of ant i-Semitism, and it goes without saying that they sell incorrect information on hurricane rescue.

There is no contact on the left wing twist site. I failed to contact Oehe.

Lip Lewis Thianh (1940-2024)

Alain update 2024-10-10 03:39:32

Lewis Tian, who was a Cuban pitcher and a new England child with a ball in the late 1970s, died yesterday, loved by red socks. 83 years old.

El Tiane's throwing ball was said by Roger Angel in New Yorker magazine, "Started with an exaggerated midstride throwing, turned back to the batter, and checked crab grass in the infield right behind the mound. It looks like there is. " When there is a runner on the base, "His stretch is composed of a series of ligh t-facing dips and poses of the grab, a threatening side eye, a lon g-lasting eye, and a gaze like Valentino. "

Lewis Thian, the first sports superstar in Cuba, died on Tuesday in his home in the main state in 1975. 83 years old.
He was called "El Tiane", Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch, Hitch Hitch ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチ・ヒッチの恥ずかしい送球を喜ぶファンから知られていた、とプレッシャーの中でのブラビューラのパフォーマンスは、1964 年から 82 He played in the six major league teams in a 1 9-year career of the year.
However, his glory days won 122 wins, and in Boston, which was the center of some races in a fascinating style that Globe Writer Peter Gamons called "Marionette Abracadabra". It was a season. ...
Tian's chiropractic movement-"Rotus while keeping on the mound, like a Bavarian clock tower", confused the batter who had no idea when and where the ball would come. ...

[Tiant became a free agent in 1971 with one win and seven losses, and Red Sox nominated him to fill the rotation holes. ...

"I never gave up." I kept telling myself that I would remain in the baseball world as long as I could receive the ball on a plate. " ...
Tian, who was struggling with people who smoke Desperado's mustaches and cigars in a clubhouse and Warpool shower room, "Polako" (Karl Yastlzem skiing), "Frankenstein" (Carlton Fisk). He was a beloved teammate with a tips to enjoy friends with nicknames such as "Pinocchio" (Rico Petrochi).

Lewis said the timing of the timing of traveling by bus "Saturday Night Live", said the former Red socks righ t-wing, Dwight Evans.

However, on the mound, Tian is a mercilessly fascinating competitor, and a throwing ball like a masterpiece compares to Red Sox's pitcher Bill Lee. "... ...

"Reds captain Pete Rose (in the 1975 World Series)," There is no pitcher in the National League.

Tian won the third place in 1976 and finished 3rd in 2 seasons, and in 1978, Red Socks decided to play off with the New York Yankees. It also included shutouts in Jays.

"They didn't negotiate me seriously," said Tiant.

So Tiant collapsed as a free agent with the Yankees. When Lewis Tian went to New York, they crushed our hearts and souls, "said Yastolsem skiing.

[Tiant finished his career with the Pirates and Angels.] "It's always good to have someone in the clubhouse who's uglier than you," said Angels teammate Fred Lynn, who played with Tiant in Boston. . . .

In 2001, he signed with the Red Sox as a coach in the Lowell organization and a special consultant. "Whenever I'm in Boston, I feel like I'm coming home.

Luis Tiant was a Cuban-born right-hander who was one of baseball's most entertaining and charismatic pitchers. He won 229 games in 19 major league seasons, played for teams in six cities, and led the Red Sox to World Series victories in Cleveland and Boston, where he became one of the franchise's most beloved players.

In a career that was marked by lengthy separations from his family and his native Cuba, and a serious shoulder injury, Tiant won 20 or more games four times, pitched 187 complete games (more than Don Sutton, Don Drysdale, Lefty Gomez and Dizzy Dean), and threw 49 complete games. He threw more shutouts (more than Roger Clemens, Whitey Ford, Hunter Catfish, Sandy Koufax, and Bob Feller).

He was distinctive in almost every way, with his Fu Manchu-like mustache, cylindrical torso, ever-present cigar (off the field, even in the shower closet), a dazzling repertoire of curveballs and throwing corners, and perhaps the most elastic and cramped windup of all time. . . .

Tiant debuted with Cleveland in 1964. Six seasons later, a shoulder injury nearly ended his career, but he found a second life in Boston before the 1972 season.

No longer the steady flame he had before his injury, he now built a total skunk, with a variety of deliveries and speeds that baffled batters. . . .

Tiant was used as both a reliever and a starter, playing for 8 seasons. He returned to the starting rotation at the end of the month and made a remarkable comeback, as the Sox finished second to Detroit, starting 10 games against tough competition, going 9-1 with six shutouts and allowing one or fewer earned runs in nine innings, clearly becoming the team's most valuable player.

Despite pitching mostly in relief for more than half the season, he went 15-6 with a 1. 91 ERA, the best in the American League. He was named Returner of the Year, and Boston fans had a new hero. . . .

Over the next six years, Tiant won 106 games with the Red Sox, including three seasons with 20 or more wins. In 1975, he helped the Red Sox win the American League pennant, winning 18 games in the regular season and pitching a complete game shutout victory for Boston in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the Oakland A's.

"Black-bearded and menacing, he looked like Villa Pancho, a robber and burner. Wasting no time or movement, he glared briefly into the sun to get the bill collector's mark, swung on one foot toward center field, then swung back to throw the lead ball.

In one of the greatest games in baseball history, the 1975 World Series, which the Cincinnati Reds won in seven innings, Tiant shut out the opposing team in Game 1, pitching a complete game victory of 5-4.

He also started in the historic Game 6, collecting seven hits in a 12-6-6 Red Sox victory that ended with a dramatic Carlton Fisk home run.

I remember watching Game 1 of the 1975 World Series five days before my 12th birthday. Boston won 6-0 and 7-1. They scored all their runs in the bottom of the inning. Tiant started the rally with a high curveball to left field, his first hit since 1972, then slid hard at second, hit a low ball, and scored, finishing off the shutout with the next six Reds.

The never-ending Bill Lee shared some stories with his Canadian friends: "He was the heart and soul of our ball."

Cards: Topps 1972-1979.

AAR: Rail freight traffic down in September, intermodal up

Posted at Risk Update 2024-10-09 19:35:00

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Index. Graph and quotes reprinted with permission.

The total total cargo volume until September 2024 has decreased by 3. 3%(285. To date, the total transportation volume in 2024 has decreased in all months except August. 2024 9 Until the month, the US complex consistent transport was 10. 2 million units, an increase of 9. 5%(882. 064 units) year-on-year (882. 064 units).

Click the graph to see a large image.

The graph was published in the Rail Time Indicators report, indicating the average amount of transportation for the past three years. The total amount of cargo in September decreased by 0. 5 % yea r-o n-year.

Except for coal in the third quarter of 2024, automobile transportation has increased 2. 9%yea r-o n-quarter of the third quarter of 2023, indicating that it has continued to be motivated for rail transportation. The total amount of cargo excluding coal increased 1. 4%(86. 782 cars) in the same period of the previous year (86. 782 cars) in the year of 2024.

Also, in Intermodal

The amount of US composite integrated transportation in September 2024 has increased by 10 and 7 % (108. 257 containers and trailers) compared to September 2023, increasing the same period for more than the previous year for more than one year. The composite integrated transportation company in the third quarter of 2024 increased 11, 0%yea r-o n-quarter of the third quarter of 2023, with the largest ratio of the previous year since the second quarter of 2021. The total number of Intermodal was 274. 500 on average. Only 2018 was larger than this in the third quarter.

Note: Railway transport has been sluggish before the pandemic. As AAR pointed out, in 2019, "the decline in trade frictions and the production of original production has led to a decrease in railway transportation." NHC East North Pacific Outlook

NHCWEBMASTER@NOAA. Gov (NHC webmaster) updated 10-10-2024 11:08:38

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical weather forecast NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Thursday, October 10, 2024 500:00 am PDT

Eastern Northern Pacific, West Sutra 140 degrees east:

Click on the chart to see a larger image.

CIDABM

Profitable of FOMC: "Some participants pointed out that there were reasonable cases in the previous meeting of 25 Basis points.

Calculated risk update 2024-10-09 18:09:49

From the Fed: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. excerpt:

Regarding the prospect of inflation, almost all participants have said that the inflation rate is steadily heading 2 %. Participants mentioned some factors that would give inflation a continuous downward pressure. These include the restrictions on the committee's monetary policy stance, which led to the slower GDP growth rate. The fact that inflation expectations have been fully established, the pric e-determined power is decreasing, the productivity is increasing, and the global product price is eased. Some of the participants pointed out that the growth of nominal wages continues to slow down, and reported signs of further decreasing. These signs include data that indicates that wages increased, which are susceptible to economic fluctuations, and that workers with labor allergies are no longer receiving wage premiums than other workers. Includes. Participants pointed out that the wage is a relatively large part of business costs in the service department, so the process of the disinfre in this department will be especially helpful due to the slowdown in nominal wages. 。 Furthermore, there are some opinions that the supply and demand in the labor market is almost equilibrium, which is unlikely that the wage increase will be a factor in inflation pressure. Regarding the prospect of inflation, almost all participants said that inflation was steadily heading to 2 %. Participants mentioned some factors that would give inflation a continuous downward pressure. These include the restrictions on the committee's monetary policy stance, which led to the slower GDP growth rate. The fact that inflation expectations have been fully established, the pric e-determined power is decreasing, the productivity is increasing, and the global product price is eased. Some of the participants pointed out that the growth of nominal wages continues to slow down, and reported signs of further decreasing. These signs include data that indicates that wages increased, which are susceptible to economic fluctuations, and that workers with labor allergies are no longer receiving wage premiums than other workers. Includes. Participants pointed out that the wage is a relatively large part of business costs in the service department, so the process of the disinfre in this department will be especially helpful due to the slowdown in nominal wages. 。 Furthermore, there are some opinions that the supply and demand in the labor market is almost equilibrium, which is unlikely that the wage increase will be a factor in inflation pressure. Regarding the prospect of inflation, almost all participants have said that the inflation rate is steadily heading 2 %. Participants mentioned some factors that would give inflation a continuous downward pressure. These include the restrictions on the committee's monetary policy stance, which led to the slower GDP growth rate. The fact that inflation expectations have been fully established, the pric e-determined power is decreasing, the productivity is increasing, and the global product price is eased. Some of the participants pointed out that the growth of nominal wages continues to slow down, and reported signs of further decreasing. These signs include data that indicates that wages increased, which are susceptible to economic fluctuations, and that workers with labor allergies are no longer receiving wage premiums than other workers. Includes. Participants pointed out that the wage is a relatively large part of business costs in the service department, so the process of the disinfre in this department will be especially helpful due to the slowdown in nominal wages. 。 Furthermore, there are some opinions that the supply and demand in the labor market is almost equilibrium, which is unlikely that the wage increase will be a factor in inflation pressure.

Since the European Commission first set the target range of Federal fund interest rates to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 %, the majority of participants have made the majority of the Federal Fund. He supported the target range by 50 Basis points to 4-3/4-5 %. These participants generally stated that reconnection of such monetary policy stances would begin to lead to better consistency with recent inflation and labor market indicators. He emphasized that such a movement continued to promote inflation progress, reflect risk balance, and to maintain the strength of the economy and labor market. Some participants have a reasonable basis for lowering 25 Basis points in the previous meeting, and the intermediate data continues to decline in labor markets and lasting 2 %. He pointed out that it was a further evidence indicating that it was in possible routes. However, while the economic growth is strong and the unemployment rate is low, the inflation rate is still slightly higher, and some participants should lower the target range by 25 bp at this meeting. Some pointed out that it was good, and some other participants pointed out that they could support such decisions. Some participants

What do economists think about the victims of natural disasters?

Tyler Cohen updated 09-10-2024 17:51:12

This is the theme of my latest Bloomberg Column:

First, it is best to prevent losses with private insurance such as housing insurance and flood insurance. One of the roles of insurance is to be able to at least partially put the loser on the wisdom, but the other is to make it too expensive to make a hig h-risk decision in the first place. The majority of the participants have made a major progress since the European Commission first set the target range of Federal Fund interest rates to 5-1/4-5-1/2 %. He supported the fund interest rate target range by 50 Basis points to 4-3/4-5 %. These participants generally stated that reconnection of such monetary policy stances would begin to lead to better consistency with recent inflation and labor market indicators. He emphasized that such a movement continued to promote inflation progress, reflect risk balance, and to maintain the strength of the economy and labor market. Some participants have a reasonable basis for lowering 25 Basis points in the previous meeting, and the intermediate data continues to decline in labor markets and lasting 2 %. He pointed out that it was a further evidence indicating that it was in possible routes. However, while the economic growth is strong and the unemployment rate is low, the inflation rate is still slightly higher, and some participants should lower the target range by 25 bp at this meeting. Some pointed out that it was good, and some other participants pointed out that they could support such decisions. Some participants

What do economists think about the victims of natural disasters?

Tyler Cohen updated 09-10-2024 17:51:12

This is the theme of my latest Bloomberg Column:

First, it is best to prevent losses with private insurance such as housing insurance and flood insurance. One of the roles of insurance is to be able to at least partially put the loser on the wisdom, but the other is to make it too expensive to make a hig h-risk decision in the first place. Since the European Commission first set the target range of Federal fund interest rates to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 %, the majority of participants have made the majority of the Federal Fund. He supported the target range by 50 Basis points to 4-3/4-5 %. These participants generally stated that reconnection of such monetary policy stances would begin to lead to better consistency with recent inflation and labor market indicators. He emphasized that such a movement continued to promote inflation progress, reflect risk balance, and to maintain the strength of the economy and labor market. Some participants have a reasonable basis for lowering 25 Basis points in the previous meeting, and the intermediate data continues to decline in labor markets and lasting 2 %. He pointed out that it was a further evidence indicating that it was in possible routes. However, while the economic growth is strong and the unemployment rate is low, the inflation rate is still slightly higher, and some participants should lower the target range by 25 bp at this meeting. Some pointed out that it was good, and some other participants pointed out that they could support such decisions. Some participants

What do economists think about the victims of natural disasters?
Tyler Cohen updated 09-10-2024 17:51:12
This is the theme of my latest Bloomberg Column:

First, it is best to prevent losses with private insurance such as housing insurance and flood insurance. One of the roles of insurance is to be able to at least partially put the loser on the wisdom, but the other is to make it too expensive to make a hig h-risk decision in the first place.

The second function of this insurance is especially important for Florida. Since this state is vulnerable to storms, the insurance market rate should be adjusted to a higher level, especially for vulnerable properties. A high price in a certain area is a sign that it should not be architecture or remodeling there. If the number of people who live in vulnerable areas decreases, the cost of storms will be reduced accordingly.

It seems to be tough, but "incentives are important" is the first principle of economics, and sometimes incentives must be used. Unfortunately, Florida has the last fort of the fortity insurance company that continues to rescue housing owners.

Political discussion tends to be described as as if this problem was for rescue poor and painful housing owners. In fact, they may suffer terrible damage due to the storm. However, apart from how to think about such relief, if there is a better incentive in advance, this problem will be less likely to rise.
What economists are good at are the former system design, rather than judging all the claims contained in public funds.

Advice that is not always considered

comment

According to Mark Burner, "How much money is the world?" By Blue J.

Reply to Oldcurmudgeon. Clarify the basic information.

Is it likely to reply to Neurotic? My house is worth the floor.

Reply to a good account. In other words, the government ... by pubby🍺

"The high price in a certain area is. By pubby🍺.

Plus 10

Economic thinking in pandemic

South Africa latest information

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

AI does not produce art, but helps to accomplish work
Kirby Ferguson update 2024-10-09 17:32:00
Image created using Dall-E 3 "Android with Writers Block". Note how much this image is meaningful. There is a keyboard without a screen, a typewriter, a paper and a pen (I think).
One of the most insightful commentators about AI is science fiction writer Ted Chan (somehow I haven't read Chan yet! Please tell me if you have any recommended books. )
Chang's recent article, "Why A. I. Do not try to make art?" Is full of the following sharp views:
Monday, August 12, 2024

Kidney exchange in Brazil: Prelude

What you create is valuable even if it is not completely different from all artworks in human history. The fact that you are saying, the fact that you are born from your unique life experience, the fact that it reaches a specific moment of the person who views your work is that it makes it a new one.
ION VIDEO Updated 2024-10-10 10:01:00
Chen claims that AI does not make art. Agreement. However, the true possibility is in another place, helping to manage the more mediocre aspects of work.

Definition of intelligence

Let's take a look at how CHIANG's intelligence is.

Computer scientist François Chollowe proposes the following differences. Skills are how well you can do a certain job, and intelligence means how effective you can learn new skills.

However, this is a photo taken at the beginning of the moment when the kidney artery is connected to the recipe artery, which seems to be the most dramatic moment of surgery.

In this way, artificial intelligence can see its identity. Learning takes a lot of time and requires a huge amount of data.
To be clear, lo w-level intelligence is a historic and groundbreaking, very useful and promising. But I think this is not a detour on the way to AGI.
This is not the AI you are looking for
Chan is called the current AI "Auto Complete Super Charged". That's right. LLM can predict words related to other words to intelligent. That's it.
We recognize the current AI as artificial intelligence, so we have an exaggeration of what AI is. A more appropriate expression is a language prediction system.
Monday, August 12, 2024

Kidney exchange in Brazil: Prelude

What you create is valuable even if it is not completely different from all artworks in human history. The fact that you are saying, the fact that you are born from your unique life experience, the fact that it reaches a specific moment of the person who views your work is that it makes it a new one.
Chen is an artist and focuses on applying AI to artistic activities. He is asking us:
... Will the world a better place by increasing the number of documents that spend a lot of effort?

As a small business owner and content creator, my answer is yes. I don't have enough time to write everything that will benefit me or my audience. These tasks are not creative, they are mundane. I can't create everything I need: marketing copy, supporting documents, outlines, drafts, etc.

Also, a lot of this writing is only for internal use. Chan is a published author, and I'm assuming we all want to be published.

AI doesn't give you excellence. It gives you mediocrity. And most of the time, mediocrity is great. To borrow a phrase from my friend Peter Nilsson, AI takes you to a level of mediocrity. And guess what? We're subpar at almost everything.

This expands the productive reach of those of us who aren't surrounded by skilled professionals.

AI can't produce great art, let alone masterpieces... but that's what I expect from a language prediction system.

This article contains affiliate links to Ted Chiang's Amazon page. If you purchase through this link, I may earn a small commission at no additional cost to you. Wednesday Mix Link Tyler Cohen Updated 2024-10-09 15:55:00

Comments

Reply to M.: I think the thesis is kind of pointless. by Maria

Click on the chart to see a larger image.

Reply to General Reader: Whimsical is not the right word.

Reply to MKT42: Scriabin comes on as Wagner's successor.

Reply to Phinton: Actually, not really. 40% of Americans are forsooth from the truth.

[...]

Here's what some local markets looked like in early September. I track over 40 local housing markets across the United States. Some of the 40 markets are states and some are metropolitan areas. This table will be updated later this month as additional data is released.

Most September sales were made in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6. 85% and 6. 50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). Sales in these markets were flat in September. Last month, August, these markets were down 2-3% year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

Important: September 2024 had the same number of business days (20) as September 2023. Therefore, the year-over-year change in the HEAD SA data is similar to the NSA data. August 2024 had one less business day compared to August 2023 (22 vs. 23), so the seasonally adjusted sales declined less than the NSA sales.

Sales in these markets are all significantly down compared to September 2019. This is just a few early reporting markets. There are many local markets to come!

There's a lot more in the article.

The typical American Tiktok user doesn't follow a single journalist or traditional media

How The New York Times built its editorial crisis into its algorithm to clean up its front page

N-balls between N-balls

DOOKIEDEMASTERED: Punk albums come back to life in fuzzy/outdated form

Show HN: Extineraries. io - I created a common travel planner between surgeries

Nobel Prize in Chemistry: Computational Proteins and Protein Structure Prediction
Oppeneye Seeks Public Benefit Structure to Prevent Hostile Takeovers
Motion (YC W20) Hires First Client Success Manager
All You Need for Energy-Efficient Language Models is an Add-on
Show HN: I Built an SSH Tunnel Manager to Learn GO

Germans Blame English Influence for "Stupid Apostrophes"

PEP 760: Don't Go Outside Naked Anymore

Your Brain Changes Based on What You Did Two Weeks Ago

What is Libredrive (2019) )

US considers breaking up Google in landmark antitrust case

Jaguars and Pumas become unexpected allies for Costa Rican ranchers

Show HN: Creating an AI conversational podcast

MLBTR podcast: Previewing free agent starting pitchers, TV deals, potential spending groups

Luis Tiant passes away

"Once upon a time, now upon us"

Tyler Cohen Updated 2024-10-09 12:02:01

The German Spelling Council (RDR) announced on Monday that it will consider the possession apostrophe correct starting in 2025, sending perfectionist grammarians into a frenzy.

Since 2004, the RDR has been considered the primary source of standard German spelling and grammar, based on German, Austrian and Swiss textbooks.

In English, the ownership of the object is almost implied by the use of apostrophe, such as Henry's Bar (Henry's Bar) and Bloomingdale's Department Store.

In German, it is owned without using an apostrophe, such as using a general grammar or Annes Cafe.

Tyler Cohen Updated 2024-10-09 12:02:01

Click here for the full text. The email update is due to Mike Dhighty.

comment

To be honest, you are talking about the truth. Nonsense. By Peter Akurayeev

On the other hand, I voted for you. New Spell by MDAP

IN REPLY TO SO MUCH FOR SUBTLETY. There was more French.

IN REPLY TO SO MUCH FOR SUBTLETY. Your command in your language.

IN REPLY TO SO MUCH FOR SUBTLETY.

Plus 10

Today's event in Northern Ireland

Russian nation

How far is Trump's judge different?

Infusion solution in the United States-Should we allow imports from overseas?

Al Ross update 2024-10-09 12:44:00

Infusion solution is insufficient due to the effects of hurricane. Should I import it? (But there is an international border).

One hurdle is usually necessary to approve a factory by FDA, but it is allowed to import from a place to perform its own high-quality tests (like Australia or Irish in 2017- Labels are good). It is possible to pause (it was in the past).

More in general, after Kobid Pandemic, we learned about the vulnerabilities of supply chains where suppliers are concentrated (like the Surgical Mask of Wuhan). The reaction was to increase domestic production. However, intensive domestic production also creates vulnerable supply chains.
Statnews tells:
Hospital group announced that the White House should declare a state emergency for Helene's shortage of infusion. The Hurricane Helen has closed a Baxter factory that produces 60 % of US infusions.
While Hurricane Helen closed the major infusion manufacturing plant and Hurricane "Milton" is heading to other infusion manufacturing plants in Florida, the US Hospital Association is on Monday on Monday on the Biden administration. He declared and requested that the state emergency right to relieve the crisis.
"In late September, Hurricane Helen has forced the Bakstar factory in Marion, North Carolina, which manufactures about 60 % of the US drip, to stop operating. In the letter to Biden, both of the "infusion suppliers" have restricted the amount that customers can order and have stopped accepting new customers. As a result, the hospital reports the shortage inside and restricts the use of drip.
"In the letter, the government declares the national emergency and public health emergency, more flexible the medicare and medicade rules for infusion, and trigger the Defense Production Law to produce drip and infusion bags. AHA also sought to increase the price to the Federal Trade Commission and the Ministry of Justice.
Another measure that the FDA can be taken is to allow the import of infusion bags from other countries to be imported from other countries, as in 2017, as in 2017, as when the infusion saline in Bakster Puerto Rico was closed in Hurricane Maria. 。 This deficiency mainly affected small drip bags. According to the medical performance improvement company Vizient, the Bakster's North Carolina Plant is a large drip bag producer, mainly containing physiological salt water, glucose, and lactate lingel.
*In 2017, "The Food and Pharmaceutical Bureau has given the Medical Supply Company to import specific products from Australia and Ireland to the United States to address the lack of infusion bags that have deteriorated by Hurricane Maria."
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
WHO says that each country should aim for sel f-sufficiency (free of charge) for organs and blood (Krawies and Roth)
Economic after GDP revision
Dean Baker update 2024-10-09 12:00:05
It is a better result than I thought: Productivity, income, and savings Hurricane "Heline" closed the major infusion manufacturing factories, and Hurricane "Milton" heads to other infusion manufacturing plants in Central Florida. During this time, the US Hospital Association called on the Biden administration to declare the shortage of infusions and activate the state emergency to alleviate the crisis.
"In late September, Hurricane Helen has forced the Bakstar factory in Marion, North Carolina, which manufactures about 60 % of the US drip, to stop operating. In the letter to Biden, both of the "infusion suppliers" have restricted the amount that customers can order and have stopped accepting new customers. As a result, the hospital reports the shortage inside and restricts the use of drip.
"In the letter, the government declares the national emergency and public health emergency, more flexible the medicare and medicade rules for infusion, and trigger the Defense Production Law to produce drip and infusion bags. AHA also sought to increase the price to the Federal Trade Commission and the Ministry of Justice.
Another measure that the FDA can be taken is to allow the import of infusion bags from other countries to be imported from other countries, as in 2017, as in 2017, as when the infusion saline in Bakster Puerto Rico was closed in Hurricane Maria. 。 This deficiency mainly affected small drip bags. According to the medical performance improvement company Vizient, the Bakster's North Carolina Plant is a large drip bag producer, mainly containing physiological salt water, glucose, and lactate lingel.
*In 2017, "The Food and Pharmaceutical Bureau has given the Medical Supply Company to import specific products from Australia and Ireland to the United States to address the lack of infusion bags that have deteriorated by Hurricane Maria."
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
WHO says that each country should aim for sel f-sufficiency (free of charge) for organs and blood (Krawies and Roth)
Economic after GDP revision
Dean Baker update 2024-10-09 12:00:05

It is a better result than I thought: Productivity, income, and savings "Huren" closed the major infusion manufacturing factories, and Hurricane "Milton" is the best in the central Florida controlled manufacturing plant. Meanwhile, the U. S. Hospital Association claimed the Biden administration to declare the shortage of infusion and activate the state emergency right to relieve the crisis.

"In late September, Hurricane Helen has forced the Bakstar factory in Marion, North Carolina, which manufactures about 60 % of the US drip, to stop operating. In the letter to Biden, both of the "infusion suppliers" have restricted the amount that customers can order and have stopped accepting new customers. As a result, the hospital reports the shortage inside and restricts the use of drip. "In the letter, the government declares the national emergency and public health emergency, more flexible the medicare and medicade rules for infusion, and trigger the Defense Production Law to produce drip and infusion bags. AHA also sought to increase the price to the Federal Trade Commission and the Ministry of Justice.

Another measure that the FDA can be taken is to allow the import of infusion bags from other countries to be imported from other countries, as in 2017, as in 2017, as when the infusion saline in Bakster Puerto Rico was closed in Hurricane Maria. 。 This deficiency mainly affected small drip bags. According to the medical performance improvement company Vizient, the Bakster's North Carolina Plant is a large drip bag producer, mainly containing physiological salt water, glucose, and lactate lingel.

*In 2017, "The Food and Pharmaceutical Bureau has given the Medical Supply Company to import specific products from Australia and Ireland to the United States to address the lack of infusion bags that have deteriorated by Hurricane Maria."

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

WHO says that each country should aim for sel f-sufficiency (free of charge) for organs and blood (Krawies and Roth)

Economic after GDP revision

Explore the excitement and popularity of Spin Casino It is a better result than I thought: Productivity, income and savings growth

GDP data revisions generally interest little outside of a handful of economists who follow the data closely. But this year's GDP revision is a big one that will interest many. Essentially, the GDP revision tells us that the economy has improved much more in the wake of the pandemic than previously thought.

The highlights include:

Economic growth that was much larger than previously thought and much faster than other rich countries.

A large increase in productivity, accelerating wage and living standard growth, and reducing the country's debt burden.

Higher income growth than previously reported.

The story about high savings rates and having to spend savings was nonsense.

Some items that were not so good:

High profit margins are still near their post-flatline peak.

Implicit corporate tax rates, while still well above 2019 levels, have declined.

Increasing GDP growth

Starting with GDP growth, the revision increased cumulative GDP growth by 1. 3% from the last report. This brings the cumulative GDP growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2019 to 10. 7%.
By comparison, Italy is in second place in the G7 with a cumulative growth rate of 5. 1%, less than half that of the US. Japan is next with 2. 4% (less than a quarter of the US), followed by the UK a t-0. 9%, Germany a t-1. 8% and Canada a t-3. 0%.
The growth we have seen is more than was expected before the pandemic. At the beginning of 2020, the CBO projected an 8. 2% economic growth rate from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2024.
This means that the economy will grow faster under a Biden-Harris administration than would have been expected in the absence of a global pandemic. The pandemic has caused a big deviation in growth in other major countries, but it has not had that effect here. The performance since 2019 looks great by any measure, but especially so when evaluated on a curve.
Productivity Accelerates
The average productivity increase rate from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2024 before the revision was 1. 6%. This is a little slower than the four years just before the pandemic (the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2019), but much faster than the average of 10 years from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2019. 。
This article indicates that productivity is ambiguous, but in addition to the revision of the employment growth rate reported last month, the situation will be better in consideration of the impact of this correction. With this amendment, the working hours in the second quarter of 2024 have decreased by about 0. 6 % from the previous report. GDP is now 1. 3%, which is about 1. 9%higher in the second quarter of 2024, about 1. 9%higher than that has been reported. (The actual number will be slightly different because the calculation of molecules and denominator is slightly more complicated than this suggested here).
These fixes have a average average productivity increase rate after pandemic, about 2. 0%. This is a big deal.

If the productivity increase rate can be maintained by 2. 0%, the real wage can grow at 2. 0%per year without inflation or interest rate (this will be described later).

If productivity grows 0. 5 % faster than expected, the GDP growth rate will also increase by about 0. 5 % faster. If the GDP growth rate continues to rise by 0. 5 % for 10 years, the GDP growth rate in 10 years will be 5. 0 % higher than if it did not increase. In other words, if other conditions are the same, the debt balance vs. GDP ratio is 5. 0 % lower than expected.

It is a very good news for those who are concerned that the debt balance ant i-GDP ratio is approaching a crisis. It is also good news for those who do not like the ratio of debt interest payments in GDP to be so large.

Productivity increase rates from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2024 before the revision of the increase in income . This is a little slower than the four years just before the pandemic (the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2019), but much faster than the average of 10 years from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2019. 。

This article indicates that productivity is ambiguous, but in addition to the revision of the employment growth rate reported last month, the situation will be better in consideration of the impact of this correction. With this amendment, the working hours in the second quarter of 2024 have decreased by about 0. 6 % from the previous report. GDP is now 1. 3%, which is about 1. 9%higher in the second quarter of 2024, about 1. 9%higher than that has been reported. (The actual number will be slightly different because the calculation of molecules and denominator is slightly more complicated than this suggested here).

These fixes have a average average productivity increase rate after pandemic, about 2. 0%. This is a big deal.

If the productivity increase rate can be maintained by 2. 0%, the real wage can grow at 2. 0%per year without inflation or interest rate (this will be described later).

The average productivity increase rate was 1. 6%from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2024 before the revision of higher income. This is a little slower than the four years just before the pandemic (the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2019), but much faster than the average of 10 years from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2019. 。

These fixes have a average average productivity increase rate after pandemic, about 2. 0%. This is a big deal.

If the productivity increase rate can be maintained by 2. 0%, the real wage can grow at 2. 0%per year without inflation or interest rate (this will be described later).

Higher income growth than expected

As mentioned above, this revision was greater than production. Cumulative income increased by 3. 8 %, which means that both wages and income have increased from the previous report. Labor income increased 1. 5%from the previous report. Income has been greatly corrected, 11 from the previous time.

Agricultural usage fee was an unusual correction of 41. 1%.

The savings rate

This is the result of 100 % predicted from a statistical mismatch (2. 7 % of GDP) between the GDP production indicator and the income index. These GDP indicators are defined as equal. The revision that approaches these two indicators means reducing production, almost certainly decreasing consumption, or increasing income, and probably increasing disposable income. In any case, the savings rate will be revised upward.

That happened in today's report. The savings rate in the second quarter was corrected from 3. 3 % to 5. 2 %. This is slightly lower than the average value of 6. 2 % for four years before the pandemic, but is not inferior to the usual year. (The savings rate in 2016 was 5. 4 %).

The top revision indicates that the screams of consumers who have to withdraw their savings are not based on reality. The low savings rate reported in the recent government announcement is a whimsical measurement value and does not exist in the world.

High profit margin

As is widely pointed out, the proportion of profits to income among the pandemic increased. This was the direct cause of the supply chain problem from 2021 to 2022. However, many of us anticipated that many of these problems would return to the level before the great famine. This doesn't seem to happen.

Source: The author's economic analysis room and calculation. As mentioned earlier, this revision was greater than production. Cumulative income increased by 3. 8 %, which means that both wages and income have increased from the previous report. Labor income increased 1. 5%from the previous report. Income has been greatly corrected, 11 from the previous time.
Agricultural usage fee was an unusual correction of 41. 1%.
The savings rate

This is the result of 100 % predicted from a statistical mismatch (2. 7 % of GDP) between the GDP production indicator and the income index. These GDP indicators are defined as equal. The revision that approaches these two indicators means reducing production, almost certainly decreasing consumption, or increasing income, and probably increasing disposable income. In any case, the savings rate will be revised upward.

That happened in today's report. The savings rate in the second quarter was corrected from 3. 3 % to 5. 2 %. This is slightly lower than the average value of 6. 2 % for four years before the pandemic, but is not inferior to the usual year. (The savings rate in 2016 was 5. 4 %).
The top revision indicates that the screams of consumers who have to withdraw their savings are not based on reality. The low savings rate reported in the recent government announcement is a whimsical measurement value and does not exist in the world.

High profit margin
As is widely pointed out, the proportion of profits to income among the pandemic increased. This was the direct cause of the supply chain problem from 2021 to 2022. However, many of us anticipated that many of these problems would return to the level before the great famine. This doesn't seem to happen.

Source: The author's economic analysis room and calculation. As mentioned above, this revision was greater than production. Cumulative income increased by 3. 8 %, which means that both wages and income have increased from the previous report. Labor income increased 1. 5%from the previous report. Income has been greatly corrected, 11 from the previous time.

Agricultural usage fee was an unusual correction of 41. 1%.
The savings rate
This is the result of 100 % predicted from a statistical mismatch (2. 7 % of GDP) between the GDP production indicator and the income index. These GDP indicators are defined as equal. The revision that approaches these two indicators means reducing production, almost certainly decreasing consumption, or increasing income, and probably increasing disposable income. In any case, the savings rate will be revised upward.

That happened in today's report. The savings rate in the second quarter was corrected from 3. 3 % to 5. 2 %. This is slightly lower than the average value of 6. 2 % for four years before the pandemic, but is not inferior to the usual year. (The savings rate in 2016 was 5. 4 %).

The top revision indicates that the screams of consumers who have to withdraw their savings are not based on reality. The low savings rate reported in the recent government announcement is a whimsical measurement value and does not exist in the world.
High profit margin

As is widely pointed out, the proportion of profits to income among the pandemic increased. This was the direct cause of the supply chain problem from 2021 to 2022. However, many of us anticipated that many of these problems would return to the level before the great famine. This doesn't seem to happen.

Source: The author's economic analysis room and calculation.

In the revised data, the profit share is almost back to its post-pandemic peak. It was 28. 7% in the second quarter. This is down 0. 5 percentage points from the peak of 29. 2% in the fourth quarter, but it is still up by more than 4. 0 percentage points from 2019 levels (this figure is total profits minus profits earned by the Federal Reserve).
The cause of this increase is debatable, but its existence is indisputable. Unless the profit share in 2019 was somehow considered unsustainably low, whether due to increased market power or not, it is clear that there is a lot of room for wages to rise at the expense of revenues.
Reduced tax burden on corporate profits

One of the successes of the Biden-Harris administration is the announced increase in the tax share of corporate profits, which has been declining for the past 50 years, partly as a result of lower tax rates and increased tax avoidance and evasion. The tax share of corporate profits has increased in recent years, but this is likely mainly the result of strengthened enforcement.
In 2019, the share of profits paid in taxes was just 15. 3%. In the unrevised figures, it was 22. 3% in the first half of 2024. In the revised data, it is 20. 3%. This is still a significant increase from the 2019 share, with taxes as a share of corporate profits increasing by almost a third.
A good financial picture gets even better with the revision

In short, the financial picture, which was already very impressive before the revision, looks even better with data that could be even better. More importantly, we now have a better story about productivity growth. If this is sustained, the future could be much brighter than previously expected.
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MBA: Weekly survey shows mortgage applications fall

Calculated Risk Updated 2024-10-09 11:00:00
From MBA: Latest weekly survey shows mortgage applications fall
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Weekly Application Survey for the week ending October 4, 2024 showed that mortgage applications fell 5. 1% from the previous week.
The market composite index, a measure of mortgage applications, was down 5% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. On an unadjusted basis, it was down 5% from the previous week. Refinance rates were down 9% from the previous week and up 159% from the same month a year ago. The seasonally adjusted market index was down 0. 1% from the previous week and up 8% from the same month a year ago.

"Mortgage rates rose on the back of strong economic data last week, including the September employment report, with 30-year fixed rates rising to 6. 36%, the highest since August," said Mike Fratantoni, SVP and chief economist at the MBA. "Conventional loans, which tend to be more sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations because they carry larger balances than government-backed loans, saw a bigger drop this week. Purchase applications were little changed during the week and remained 8% above last year's levels."
As we've noted before, the decision to buy a home is influenced by many factors, not just the level of mortgage rates. Over the past year, the biggest constraint for many would-be home buyers has been a lack of inventory. Now, with more homes available in many markets across the country and mortgage rates still low compared to recent history, at least some would-be home buyers are moving forward. " . The average contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766, 550 or less) rose from 6. 14% to 6. 36%, and for 80% loan-to-value (LTV) loans, the points rose from 0. 61 to 0. 62 (including origination fees). Highlighted.

Click on the graphs to see a larger image.
The first graph is the MBA's Mortgage Market Index.

According to the MBA, market activity is up 8% year over year.
Red is the 4-week average (blue is weekly).

Market activity is up about 19% from the lows at the end of October 2023, but is still about 1% below the lows during the housing downturn.

The second graph shows refinance rates since 1990.

As mortgage rates have risen, the refinance index has risen significantly recently with falling mortgage rates, but has fallen slightly over the past two weeks with rising interest rates.
A long way to go
Aeon Video Update 2024-10-09 10:01:00
A beautiful world ... if you are free. ": Two teenagers are worried about how to live in a real life
SPACEX's next launch and the first catch may be this weekend.
Stephen Clark update 2024-10-08 19:22:01

The next test flight of the Space X Starship Rocket may not have to wait as much as you want.

Space X states that the strongest rocket in the world could r e-fly on Sunday as soon as possible with the approval of the Federal Aviation Bureau. According to the latest statement published by the Federal Aviation Bureau, the Bureau is unlikely to decide whether to approve a commercial launch license for Space X's next Starship test flight by late November.
Space X has a optimistic view that the FAA may be able to make a launch earlier, perhaps in time for this weekend's starship flight. The launch window on Sunday is a sta r-based launch area of Space X in southern Texas, about 30 minutes before the sunrise, at 7:00 am in the eastern summer time in the eastern United States (8:00 am in the eastern summer time, 12:00 in the world). 。
Grand Folks Air Force Base, Relocated B-1B Lancer's high-temperature fuel burning for the first time in 30 years
Order from the US Air Force, Lockheed Martin, 3. 5 billion dollars AGM-158B JASSM and AGM-158C LRASM Bissil

Awarded by the Land of British Navy Wildcat Pilot, a doctor helicopter landing

Sinky: Participate in the game

I commented on how Fitbit's worsening experience would be worth the value of users in the lack of fundamentals, with metric s-based product development. Alex received a response:

Alex Polikakov

Unfortunately, some of us have to acquire pain in the body. My insulin pump, which is a diabetic patient (and we are ton ...

Can you find the sun?

About sustainability of finances

Tyler Kawen updated 2024-10-09 04:59:24

According to the 2012 IMF report, the ratio of the Greek government's interest payments in 2009, 2010, and 2011 was 13. 4 %, 14. 7 %, and 16. 8 %, respectively. If you subtract "social contribution" related to government business from the indicator of revenue, the ratio will be 24. 1 % in 2011. You are concerned about a substantial hard default, contrasted with slow debt creation.

How far are the US Federal Government covered? Using Table 1-1, the latest budget and economic outlook on the US Congress Budget (CBO) (June 2024), the proportion of interest spending to the federal income is 18 this year, taxes and expenditures. This year, this year it was 18, 2 % (interest of $ 892 billion for $ 4890 trillion), and 2025 was 20, 2 % (interest of $ 501. 6 billion for $ 5, 038 trillion).

I'm more optimistic than many acquaintances, but this is a concern. About CBO prediction:

As in the last part of the green dotted line of the graph, the CBO anticipates that the average interest rate on federal debt will barely reach 3, 36 %, 3, 38 %.

Is this assumption appropriate?

And this surprising surprise:

However, if the average interest rate on federal debt reaches 9. 2 % in 1982 or 7. 2 % in 1991, we will not consider what the interest rate will be. Instead, let's think about what will happen if the interest rate has increased little by little every year for the next 10 years, and in 2034, to a 1, 0 % difference. In other words, what would happen if the average interest rate paid by the federal government to debt was reached to 4 or 4 %, rather than finishing the next 10 years, as expected by the CBO?

The next graph indicates that if this happens under the current law, interest payment will consume 29, 7 % of the revenue and 40, 4 % of revenue excluding Oasdi's social security expenses. If you are willing to use social security salary revenue for other purposes other than social security, keep in mind that these tax revenues will only be 83 % of your benefits after 2035.

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